Ligue 2 2026-2027: Boulogne vs Nantes Prediction - 19 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Boulogne

Home Team
32%
VS

Nantes

Away Team
38%
Draw: 30%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.1
Expected Shots: 23.6
Expected Spread: -0.4

Why the Model Leans Nantes

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Boulogne
Attack +5.6 Nantes
Results & dominance +5.3 Nantes
Defense +4.0 Nantes
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +0.6 Nantes

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 54% for Nantes. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Boulogne defense +0.8 Under
Form & results +0.5 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 St Etienne 6 5 0 1 17 6 11 15
2 Reims 6 3 3 0 14 8 6 12
3 Montpellier 6 3 2 1 5 4 1 11
4 Red Star 6 3 2 1 6 6 0 11
5 Annecy 6 3 1 2 8 7 1 10
6 Metz 6 2 3 1 8 5 3 9
7 Sochaux 6 2 3 1 3 4 -1 9
8 Dunkerque 6 2 2 2 10 10 0 8
9 Guingamp 6 2 2 2 9 9 0 8
10 Nancy 6 2 1 3 4 4 0 7
11 Rodez 6 2 1 3 11 12 -1 7
12 Grenoble 6 2 1 3 7 10 -3 7
13 Dijon 6 1 3 2 8 9 -1 6
14 Boulogne 6 0 5 1 2 3 -1 5
15 Pau FC 6 1 2 3 4 6 -2 5
16 Clermont 6 0 5 1 3 5 -2 5
17 Nantes 6 1 1 4 7 12 -5 4
18 Laval 6 1 1 4 7 13 -6 4

Recent Trends

Boulogne D D D D L

  • Last Match: D vs Clermont (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Dijon (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Montpellier (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Red Star (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Guingamp (Goals: 0 - 1)

Nantes L W D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Sochaux (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Nancy (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Guingamp (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Rodez (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Laval (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Boulogne

Goals scored (avg, home) 0.67
Goals conceded (avg, home) 0.67
Clean Sheets 2

Nantes

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.33
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.00
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Boulogne a 32% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 30% and Nantes at 38%. This is a tight call, with Nantes only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 52% and sees both teams scoring in 53% of cases.

Match Analysis

Boulogne arrive with 0 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (DDDDL from most recent), scoring 2 and conceding 3 with 2 clean sheets. Nantes arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (LWDLL from most recent), scoring 7 and conceding 11 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Boulogne sit 14th with 5 points from 6 games and a goal difference of -1, while Nantes are 17th with 4 points and a goal difference of -5. That puts Boulogne 1 point clear of their opponent. Boulogne average 0.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over their last five home games, while Nantes average 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Boulogne), attack (5.6 points toward Nantes), results & dominance (5.3 points toward Nantes). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Boulogne
Goals in last 5 matches
Nantes
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 52% and Over 2.5 at 48%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Boulogne matches produced 1.0 goals on average over their last 5, Nantes matches 3.6. Both teams to score comes in at 53%, no goal for at least one side at 47%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Boulogne defense pulls toward Under by 0.8 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Boulogne
Corners in last 5 matches
Nantes
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.1 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 58%, which leaves 42% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Boulogne
Shots in last 5 matches
Nantes
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 23.6 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 23. The chance of 23 shots or fewer is 50%, which leaves 50% for 24 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Boulogne wins by X goals. Negative = Nantes wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Boulogne vs Nantes with expected spread of -0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Boulogne vs Nantes
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.4 goals in favour of Nantes. The spread model gives 17% to a Boulogne win by two goals or more and 52% to any Nantes win. A Nantes win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Nantes win (38%), Under 2.5 (52%), Goal (53%). Expected totals: 9.1 corners and 23.6 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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