Boulogne
Ligue 2 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #15 of 18 in Ligue 2 36 pts · 9W–9D–16L · GD -15
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 2 simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Boulogne?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Boulogne's results were 6.9% harder to call than the Ligue 2 average. How this is measured.
| Market | Boulogne | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 34.5% | 41.5% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 44.8% | 51.9% |
| Both teams to score | 48.3% | 47.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Ligue 2 | #16 | 1482 | 1502 | 1416 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 09, 2026 | at Laval | L Boulogne 33.2% · draw 31.1% | L ✓ |
| May 02, 2026 | vs Annecy | L Boulogne 31.7% · draw 31.2% | L ✓ |
| Apr 27, 2026 | vs Dunkerque | L Boulogne 33.2% · draw 32.0% | L ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Troyes | L Boulogne 14.1% · draw 23.3% | L ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Le Mans | L Boulogne 28.5% · draw 30.2% | D ✗ |
| Apr 04, 2026 | at Reims | L Boulogne 12.3% · draw 22.4% | D ✗ |
| Mar 20, 2026 | vs Nancy | W Boulogne 36.5% · draw 31.2% | D ✗ |
| Mar 13, 2026 | at Bastia | L Boulogne 28.6% · draw 30.9% | W ✗ |
| Mar 06, 2026 | vs Amiens | W Boulogne 50.4% · draw 28.2% | W ✓ |
| Feb 27, 2026 | at Grenoble | L Boulogne 32.1% · draw 31.9% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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