Boulogne

Ligue 2 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1404 · #17 Ligue 2 0W-6D-2L · 6 pts In line Updated Oct 12, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #17 of 18 36.4 expected pts · currently 6 pts after 8 matches

League title 0.0%
Promotion 0.1%
Automatic promotion 0.1%
Promotion barrage 1.3%
Relegation barrage 13.1%
Relegation 32.7%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Ligue 2 simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Boulogne?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Boulogne's results were 6.9% harder to call than the Ligue 2 average. How this is measured.

MarketBoulogneLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 34.5% 41.5%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 44.8% 51.9%
Both teams to score 48.3% 47.7%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Ligue 2 #17 1435 1435 1404
2025-26 Ligue 2 #16 1482 1502 1416

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 09, 2026 at Sochaux L Boulogne 31.1% · draw 31.7% D ✗
Sep 19, 2026 vs Nantes L Boulogne 31.9% · draw 30.2% L ✓
Sep 11, 2026 at Clermont L Boulogne 28.8% · draw 31.0% D ✗

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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