Ligue 2 2026-2027: Clermont vs Red Star Prediction - 10 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Clermont

Home Team
35%
VS

Red Star

Away Team
34%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 24.1
Expected Spread: -0.3

Why the Model Leans Clermont

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Clermont
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +5.5 Red Star
Attack +2.7 Red Star
Defense +1.1 Red Star
Results & dominance +0.9 Red Star

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 50% for Clermont. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Red Star attack & chance creation +2.5 Over
Clermont attack & chance creation +2.2 Under
Clermont defense +1.2 Under
Form & results +0.8 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 St Etienne 7 5 1 1 19 8 11 16
2 Red Star 7 4 2 1 9 7 2 14
3 Reims 7 3 4 0 15 9 6 13
4 Montpellier 7 3 3 1 6 5 1 12
5 Metz 7 2 4 1 10 7 3 10
6 Nancy 7 3 1 3 8 7 1 10
7 Annecy 7 3 1 3 9 9 0 10
8 Sochaux 7 2 4 1 4 5 -1 10
9 Dijon 7 2 3 2 10 10 0 9
10 Pau FC 7 2 2 3 6 6 0 8
11 Dunkerque 7 2 2 3 10 12 -2 8
12 Guingamp 7 2 2 3 10 12 -2 8
13 Grenoble 7 2 2 3 8 11 -3 8
14 Rodez 7 2 1 4 14 16 -2 7
15 Nantes 7 2 1 4 9 13 -4 7
16 Clermont 7 0 6 1 4 6 -2 6
17 Boulogne 7 0 5 2 3 5 -2 5
18 Laval 7 1 2 4 8 14 -6 5

Recent Trends

Clermont D D D D D

  • Last Match: D vs Grenoble (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Boulogne (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Dunkerque (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Sochaux (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Dijon (Goals: 1 - 1)

Red Star W W W L D

  • Last Match: W vs Guingamp (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Laval (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Reims (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Boulogne (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Clermont

Goals scored (avg, home) 0.25
Goals conceded (avg, home) 0.25
Clean Sheets 2

Red Star

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.75
Goals conceded (avg, away) 0.75
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Clermont a 35% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Red Star at 34%. This is a tight call, with Clermont only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 53% and sees both teams scoring in 51% of cases.

Match Analysis

Clermont arrive with 0 wins, 5 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (DDDDD from most recent), scoring 3 and conceding 3 with 2 clean sheets. Red Star arrive with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WWWLD from most recent), scoring 8 and conceding 7 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Clermont sit 16th with 6 points from 7 games and a goal difference of -2, while Red Star are 2nd with 14 points and a goal difference of +2. That puts Red Star 8 points clear of their opponent. Clermont average 0.2 goals scored and 0.2 conceded over their last five home games, while Red Star average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Clermont), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (5.5 points toward Red Star), attack (2.7 points toward Red Star). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Clermont
Goals in last 5 matches
Red Star
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 53% and Over 2.5 at 47%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Clermont matches produced 1.2 goals on average over their last 5, Red Star matches 3.0. Both teams to score comes in at 51%, no goal for at least one side at 49%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Red Star attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 2.5 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Clermont
Corners in last 5 matches
Red Star
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.3 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 55%, which leaves 45% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Clermont
Shots in last 5 matches
Red Star
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 24.1 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 24. The chance of 24 shots or fewer is 55%, which leaves 45% for 25 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Clermont wins by X goals. Negative = Red Star wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Clermont vs Red Star with expected spread of -0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Clermont vs Red Star
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.3 goals in favour of Red Star. The spread model gives 19% to a Clermont win by two goals or more and 49% to any Red Star win. A Red Star win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Clermont win (35%), Under 2.5 (53%), Goal (51%). Expected totals: 9.3 corners and 24.1 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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