Ligue 2 2026-2027: Dijon vs Laval Prediction - 11 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Dijon

Home Team
44%
VS

Laval

Away Team
28%
Draw: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 24.6
Expected Spread: +0.3

Why the Model Leans Dijon

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Dijon
Results & dominance +2.5 Dijon

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 61% for Dijon. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Laval defense +2.0 Over
Form & results +1.1 Over
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +0.9 Under
Laval attack & chance creation +0.6 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 50% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 St Etienne 5 5 0 0 16 4 12 15
2 Annecy 5 3 1 1 7 5 2 10
3 Reims 5 2 3 0 12 7 5 9
4 Metz 5 2 3 0 8 4 4 9
5 Montpellier 5 2 2 1 4 4 0 8
6 Red Star 5 2 2 1 5 6 -1 8
7 Nancy 5 2 1 2 3 2 1 7
8 Rodez 5 2 1 2 11 11 0 7
9 Sochaux 5 1 3 1 2 4 -2 6
10 Dunkerque 5 1 2 2 8 9 -1 5
11 Guingamp 5 1 2 2 7 8 -1 5
12 Pau FC 5 1 2 2 4 5 -1 5
13 Boulogne 5 0 4 1 2 3 -1 4
14 Clermont 5 0 4 1 3 5 -2 4
15 Nantes 5 1 1 3 7 11 -4 4
16 Grenoble 5 1 1 3 6 10 -4 4
17 Laval 5 1 1 3 5 10 -5 4
18 Dijon 5 0 3 2 5 7 -2 3

Recent Trends

Dijon D L D L D

  • Last Match: D vs Boulogne (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs St Etienne (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Clermont (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Pau FC (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Montpellier (Goals: 1 - 1)

Laval L L D W L

  • Last Match: L vs Red Star (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Grenoble (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Metz (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Rodez (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Dijon

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 2.00
Clean Sheets 0

Laval

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.00
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Dijon a 44% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 29% and Laval at 28%. This is a tight call, with Dijon only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 50% and sees both teams scoring in 52% of cases.

Match Analysis

Dijon arrive with 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (DLDLD from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 7 with 0 clean sheets. Laval arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLDWL from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 10 with 0 clean sheets. In the table Dijon sit 18th with 3 points from 5 games and a goal difference of -2, while Laval are 17th with 4 points and a goal difference of -5. That puts Laval 1 point clear of their opponent. Dijon average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Laval average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Dijon), results & dominance (2.5 points toward Dijon). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Dijon
Goals in last 5 matches
Laval
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 50% and Over 2.5 at 50%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Dijon matches produced 2.4 goals on average over their last 5, Laval matches 3.0. Both teams to score comes in at 52%, no goal for at least one side at 48%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Laval defense pulls toward Over by 2.0 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Dijon
Corners in last 5 matches
Laval
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.4 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 54%, which leaves 46% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Dijon
Shots in last 5 matches
Laval
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 24.6 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 24. The chance of 24 shots or fewer is 50%, which leaves 50% for 25 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Dijon wins by X goals. Negative = Laval wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Dijon vs Laval with expected spread of +0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Dijon vs Laval
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.3 goals in favour of Dijon. The spread model gives 27% to a Dijon win by two goals or more and 38% to any Laval win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Dijon win (44%), Over 2.5 (50%), Goal (52%). Expected totals: 9.4 corners and 24.6 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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