Ligue 2 2026-2027: Dijon vs Metz Prediction - 12 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Dijon

Home Team
34%
VS

Metz

Away Team
35%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 25.4
Expected Spread: -0.1

Why the Model Leans Metz

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Dijon
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.8 Metz
Results & dominance +3.0 Metz
Attack +2.8 Metz
Defense +2.4 Metz

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Metz. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Metz defense +2.4 Over
Dijon attack & chance creation +1.5 Under
Dijon defense +1.4 Over
Metz attack & chance creation +0.7 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 St Etienne 7 5 1 1 19 8 11 16
2 Red Star 7 4 2 1 9 7 2 14
3 Reims 7 3 4 0 15 9 6 13
4 Montpellier 7 3 3 1 6 5 1 12
5 Metz 7 2 4 1 10 7 3 10
6 Nancy 7 3 1 3 8 7 1 10
7 Annecy 7 3 1 3 9 9 0 10
8 Sochaux 7 2 4 1 4 5 -1 10
9 Dijon 7 2 3 2 10 10 0 9
10 Pau FC 7 2 2 3 6 6 0 8
11 Dunkerque 7 2 2 3 10 12 -2 8
12 Guingamp 7 2 2 3 10 12 -2 8
13 Grenoble 7 2 2 3 8 11 -3 8
14 Rodez 7 2 1 4 14 16 -2 7
15 Nantes 7 2 1 4 9 13 -4 7
16 Clermont 7 0 6 1 4 6 -2 6
17 Boulogne 7 0 5 2 3 5 -2 5
18 Laval 7 1 2 4 8 14 -6 5

Recent Trends

Dijon W W D L D

  • Last Match: W vs Annecy (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Laval (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Boulogne (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs St Etienne (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Clermont (Goals: 1 - 1)

Metz D L W D D

  • Last Match: D vs St Etienne (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Red Star (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Rodez (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Annecy (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Laval (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Dijon

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.67
Goals conceded (avg, home) 2.00
Clean Sheets 0

Metz

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.33
Goals conceded (avg, away) 0.67
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Dijon a 34% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Metz at 35%. This is a tight call, with Metz only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 51% and sees both teams scoring in 52% of cases.

Match Analysis

Dijon arrive with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WWDLD from most recent), scoring 9 and conceding 8 with 0 clean sheets. Metz arrive with 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (DLWDD from most recent), scoring 8 and conceding 6 with 0 clean sheets. In the table Dijon sit 9th with 9 points from 7 games and a level goal difference, while Metz are 5th with 10 points and a goal difference of +3. That puts Metz 1 point clear of their opponent. Dijon average 1.7 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Metz average 0.3 scored and 0.7 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Dijon), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (3.8 points toward Metz), results & dominance (3.0 points toward Metz). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Dijon
Goals in last 5 matches
Metz
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 49% and Over 2.5 at 51%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Dijon matches produced 3.4 goals on average over their last 5, Metz matches 2.8. Both teams to score comes in at 52%, no goal for at least one side at 48%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Metz defense pulls toward Over by 2.4 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Dijon
Corners in last 5 matches
Metz
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.2 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 56%, which leaves 44% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Dijon
Shots in last 5 matches
Metz
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.4 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 52%, which leaves 48% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Dijon wins by X goals. Negative = Metz wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Dijon vs Metz with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Dijon vs Metz
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.1 goals in favour of Metz. The spread model gives 22% to a Dijon win by two goals or more and 45% to any Metz win. A Metz win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Metz win (35%), Over 2.5 (51%), Goal (52%). Expected totals: 9.2 corners and 25.4 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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