Ligue 2 2026-2027: Dunkerque vs Saint-Étienne Prediction - 12 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Dunkerque

Home Team
27%
VS

Saint-Étienne

Away Team
46%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 61%
No Goal: 39%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 22.8
Expected Spread: -0.5

Why the Model Leans Saint-Étienne

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Dunkerque
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +9.9 Saint-Étienne
Defense +5.5 Saint-Étienne
Results & dominance +5.3 Saint-Étienne
Attack +2.9 Saint-Étienne

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 63% for Saint-Étienne. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Saint-Étienne attack & chance creation +2.3 Over
Form & results +1.5 Under
Saint-Étienne defense +0.6 Over
Dunkerque defense +0.6 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 50% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 St Etienne 5 5 0 0 16 4 12 15
2 Annecy 5 3 1 1 7 5 2 10
3 Reims 5 2 3 0 12 7 5 9
4 Metz 5 2 3 0 8 4 4 9
5 Montpellier 5 2 2 1 4 4 0 8
6 Red Star 5 2 2 1 5 6 -1 8
7 Nancy 5 2 1 2 3 2 1 7
8 Rodez 5 2 1 2 11 11 0 7
9 Sochaux 5 1 3 1 2 4 -2 6
10 Dunkerque 5 1 2 2 8 9 -1 5
11 Guingamp 5 1 2 2 7 8 -1 5
12 Pau FC 5 1 2 2 4 5 -1 5
13 Boulogne 5 0 4 1 2 3 -1 4
14 Clermont 5 0 4 1 3 5 -2 4
15 Nantes 5 1 1 3 7 11 -4 4
16 Grenoble 5 1 1 3 6 10 -4 4
17 Laval 5 1 1 3 5 10 -5 4
18 Dijon 5 0 3 2 5 7 -2 3

Recent Trends

Dunkerque D L L D W

  • Last Match: D vs Clermont (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Nancy (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Montpellier (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Reims (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Grenoble (Goals: 4 - 2)

Saint-Étienne W W W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Montpellier (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Dijon (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Grenoble (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Clermont (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Sochaux (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Dunkerque

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.67
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.33
Clean Sheets 0

Saint-Étienne

Goals scored (avg, away) 3.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.00
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Dunkerque a 27% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 27% and St Etienne at 46%. St Etienne are the favourite, but the gap to the other outcomes is modest. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 50% and sees both teams scoring in 61% of cases.

Match Analysis

Dunkerque arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (DLLDW from most recent), scoring 8 and conceding 9 with 0 clean sheets. St Etienne arrive with 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (WWWWW from most recent), scoring 16 and conceding 4 with 2 clean sheets. In the table Dunkerque sit 10th with 5 points from 5 games and a goal difference of -1, while St Etienne are 1st with 15 points and a goal difference of +12. That puts St Etienne 10 points clear of their opponent. Dunkerque average 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over their last five home games, while St Etienne average 3.0 scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Dunkerque), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (9.9 points toward St Etienne), defense (5.5 points toward St Etienne). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Dunkerque
Goals in last 5 matches
Saint-Étienne
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 50% and Over 2.5 at 50%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Dunkerque matches produced 3.4 goals on average over their last 5, St Etienne matches 4.0. Both teams to score comes in at 61%, no goal for at least one side at 39%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and St Etienne attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 2.3 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Dunkerque
Corners in last 5 matches
Saint-Étienne
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.7 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 50%, which leaves 50% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Dunkerque
Shots in last 5 matches
Saint-Étienne
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 22.8 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 22. The chance of 22 shots or fewer is 49%, which leaves 51% for 23 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Dunkerque wins by X goals. Negative = Saint-Étienne wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Dunkerque vs Saint-Étienne with expected spread of -0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Dunkerque vs Saint-Étienne
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.5 goals in favour of St Etienne. The spread model gives 16% to a Dunkerque win by two goals or more and 54% to any St Etienne win. A St Etienne win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: St Etienne win (46%), Over 2.5 (50%), Goal (61%). Expected totals: 9.7 corners and 22.8 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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