Saint-Étienne
Ligue 2 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #3 of 18 in Ligue 2 60 pts · 18W–6D–10L · GD +21
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 2 simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Saint-Étienne?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Saint-Étienne's results were 5.0% easier to call than the Ligue 2 average. How this is measured.
| Market | Saint-Étienne | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 51.7% | 41.5% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 51.7% | 51.9% |
| Both teams to score | 44.8% | 47.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Ligue 2 | #7 | 1502 | 1626 | 1544 |
| 2024-25 | Ligue 1 | #16 | 1482 | 1482 | 1405 |
| 2023-24 | Ligue 2 | #3 | 1530 | 1654 | 1602 |
| 2022-23 | Ligue 2 | #3 | 1481 | 1595 | 1587 |
| 2021-22 | Ligue 1 | #15 | 1498 | 1500 | 1393 |
| 2020-21 | Ligue 1 | #11 | 1522 | 1571 | 1479 |
| 2019-20 | Ligue 1 | #18 | 1529 | 1559 | 1399 |
| 2018-19 | Ligue 1 | #4 | 1518 | 1598 | 1596 |
| 2017-18 | Ligue 1 | #7 | 1518 | 1588 | 1550 |
| 2016-17 | Ligue 1 | #11 | 1482 | 1564 | 1462 |
| 2015-16 | Ligue 1 | #6 | 1482 | 1582 | 1525 |
| 2014-15 | Ligue 1 | #4 | 1533 | 1638 | 1620 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 09, 2026 | vs Amiens | W Saint-Étienne 80.1% · draw 12.7% | W ✓ |
| May 02, 2026 | at Rodez | W Saint-Étienne 38.6% · draw 30.4% | L ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Troyes | W Saint-Étienne 45.0% · draw 30.0% | L ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Bastia | W Saint-Étienne 42.1% · draw 29.2% | L ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Dunkerque | W Saint-Étienne 59.5% · draw 23.6% | W ✓ |
| Apr 04, 2026 | at Nancy | W Saint-Étienne 41.8% · draw 29.0% | D ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Annecy | W Saint-Étienne 55.5% · draw 25.4% | W ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at Grenoble | W Saint-Étienne 43.9% · draw 28.5% | D ✗ |
| Mar 07, 2026 | vs Red Star | W Saint-Étienne 48.5% · draw 28.6% | W ✓ |
| Feb 28, 2026 | at Pau FC | W Saint-Étienne 36.1% · draw 30.6% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Ligue 2 title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/saint-etienne">Ligue 2 title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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