Saint-Étienne

Ligue 2 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1610 · #3 Ligue 2 6W-1D-1L · 19 pts In line Updated Oct 12, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #1 of 18 62.5 expected pts · currently 19 pts after 8 matches

League title 48.7%
Promotion 71.0%
Automatic promotion 71.0%
Promotion barrage 23.5%
Relegation barrage 0.0%
Relegation 0.0%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Ligue 2 simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Saint-Étienne?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Saint-Étienne's results were 5.0% easier to call than the Ligue 2 average. How this is measured.

MarketSaint-ÉtienneLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 51.7% 41.5%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 51.7% 51.9%
Both teams to score 44.8% 47.7%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Ligue 2 #3 1565 1626 1610
2025-26 Ligue 2 #7 1502 1626 1544
2024-25 Ligue 1 #16 1482 1482 1405
2023-24 Ligue 2 #3 1530 1654 1602
2022-23 Ligue 2 #3 1481 1595 1587
2021-22 Ligue 1 #15 1498 1500 1393
2020-21 Ligue 1 #11 1522 1571 1479
2019-20 Ligue 1 #18 1529 1559 1399
2018-19 Ligue 1 #4 1518 1598 1596
2017-18 Ligue 1 #7 1518 1588 1550
2016-17 Ligue 1 #11 1482 1564 1462
2015-16 Ligue 1 #6 1482 1582 1525
2014-15 Ligue 1 #4 1533 1638 1620

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 10, 2026 vs Rodez W Saint-Étienne 72.8% · draw 16.6% W ✓
Sep 19, 2026 at Metz W Saint-Étienne 43.6% · draw 28.4% D ✗
Sep 12, 2026 at Dunkerque W Saint-Étienne 45.8% · draw 27.5% L ✗

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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