Dunkerque

Ligue 2 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1442 · #13 Ligue 2 1W-1D-2L · 4 pts In line Updated Aug 31, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #10 of 18 42.0 expected pts · currently 4 pts after 4 matches

League title 0.3%
Promotion 1.1%
Automatic promotion 1.1%
Promotion barrage 7.5%
Relegation barrage 7.3%
Relegation 12.7%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Ligue 2 simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Dunkerque?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Dunkerque's results were 4.1% harder to call than the Ligue 2 average. How this is measured.

MarketDunkerqueLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 41.4% 41.5%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 51.7% 51.9%
Both teams to score 34.5% 47.7%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Ligue 2 #13 1479 1486 1442
2025-26 Ligue 2 #13 1498 1624 1438
2024-25 Ligue 2 #6 1478 1628 1533
2023-24 Ligue 2 #10 1373 1548 1511
2021-22 Ligue 2 #19 1456 1500 1333
2020-21 Ligue 2 #16 1529 1548 1449

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 09, 2026 at Nancy W Dunkerque 36.7% · draw 31.6% L ✗
May 02, 2026 vs Grenoble W Dunkerque 46.1% · draw 28.1% L ✗
Apr 27, 2026 at Boulogne W Dunkerque 34.8% · draw 32.0% W ✓
Apr 20, 2026 vs Laval W Dunkerque 48.2% · draw 27.7% L ✗
Apr 11, 2026 at Saint-Étienne L Dunkerque 16.9% · draw 23.6% L ✓
Apr 03, 2026 vs Rodez W Dunkerque 40.3% · draw 30.9% D ✗
Mar 21, 2026 at Troyes L Dunkerque 20.9% · draw 28.6% L ✓
Mar 14, 2026 at Red Star L Dunkerque 29.8% · draw 31.4% L ✓
Mar 09, 2026 vs Reims L Dunkerque 31.5% · draw 30.5% D ✗
Feb 27, 2026 at Clermont W Dunkerque 39.2% · draw 30.2% L ✗

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/dunkerque">Ligue 2 title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)

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