Ligue 2 2026-2027: Grenoble vs Clermont Prediction - 18 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Grenoble

Home Team
37%
VS

Clermont

Away Team
32%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 43%
Under 2.5: 57%
Goal: 39%
No Goal: 61%
Expected Corners: 9.0
Expected Shots: 22.9
Expected Spread: -0.1

Why the Model Leans Grenoble

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Grenoble
Results & dominance +7.4 Clermont
Defense +1.7 Clermont
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +0.9 Grenoble
Attack +0.5 Grenoble

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Grenoble. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Grenoble attack & chance creation +5.3 Under
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Clermont attack & chance creation +0.7 Under
Grenoble defense +0.7 Over
Clermont defense +0.7 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 57% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 St Etienne 6 5 0 1 17 6 11 15
2 Reims 6 3 3 0 14 8 6 12
3 Montpellier 6 3 2 1 5 4 1 11
4 Red Star 6 3 2 1 6 6 0 11
5 Annecy 6 3 1 2 8 7 1 10
6 Metz 6 2 3 1 8 5 3 9
7 Sochaux 6 2 3 1 3 4 -1 9
8 Dunkerque 6 2 2 2 10 10 0 8
9 Guingamp 6 2 2 2 9 9 0 8
10 Nancy 6 2 1 3 4 4 0 7
11 Rodez 6 2 1 3 11 12 -1 7
12 Grenoble 6 2 1 3 7 10 -3 7
13 Dijon 6 1 3 2 8 9 -1 6
14 Boulogne 6 0 5 1 2 3 -1 5
15 Pau FC 6 1 2 3 4 6 -2 5
16 Clermont 6 0 5 1 3 5 -2 5
17 Nantes 6 1 1 4 7 12 -5 4
18 Laval 6 1 1 4 7 13 -6 4

Recent Trends

Grenoble W L W L D

  • Last Match: W vs Rodez (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Annecy (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Laval (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs St Etienne (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Metz (Goals: 0 - 0)

Clermont D D D D L

  • Last Match: D vs Boulogne (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Dunkerque (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Sochaux (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Dijon (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs St Etienne (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Grenoble

Goals scored (avg, home) 0.50
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.00
Clean Sheets 3

Clermont

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.00
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Grenoble a 37% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Clermont at 32%. This is a tight call, with Grenoble only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 57% and sees both teams scoring in 39% of cases.

Match Analysis

Grenoble arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (WLWLD from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 6 with 3 clean sheets. Clermont arrive with 0 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (DDDDL from most recent), scoring 3 and conceding 5 with 2 clean sheets. In the table Grenoble sit 12th with 7 points from 6 games and a goal difference of -3, while Clermont are 16th with 5 points and a goal difference of -2. That puts Grenoble 2 points clear of their opponent. Grenoble average 0.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Clermont average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Grenoble), results & dominance (7.4 points toward Clermont), defense (1.7 points toward Clermont). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Grenoble
Goals in last 5 matches
Clermont
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 57% and Over 2.5 at 43%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Grenoble matches produced 2.2 goals on average over their last 5, Clermont matches 1.6. Both teams to score comes in at 39%, no goal for at least one side at 61%. In the model's own attribution, Grenoble attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 5.3 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Grenoble
Corners in last 5 matches
Clermont
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.0 corners in total. The single most likely count is 8. The chance of 8 corners or fewer is 46%, which leaves 54% for 9 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Grenoble
Shots in last 5 matches
Clermont
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 22.9 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 22. The chance of 22 shots or fewer is 48%, which leaves 52% for 23 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Grenoble wins by X goals. Negative = Clermont wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Grenoble vs Clermont with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Grenoble vs Clermont
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.1 goals in favour of Clermont. The spread model gives 22% to a Grenoble win by two goals or more and 45% to any Clermont win. A Clermont win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Grenoble win (37%), Under 2.5 (57%), No Goal (61%). Expected totals: 9.0 corners and 22.9 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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