Grenoble

Ligue 2 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1502 · #8 Ligue 2 1W-1D-2L · 4 pts In line Updated Aug 31, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #9 of 18 43.1 expected pts · currently 4 pts after 4 matches

League title 0.4%
Promotion 1.5%
Automatic promotion 1.5%
Promotion barrage 9.6%
Relegation barrage 6.4%
Relegation 9.7%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Ligue 2 simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Grenoble?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Grenoble's results were 5.0% harder to call than the Ligue 2 average. How this is measured.

MarketGrenobleLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 34.5% 41.5%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 62.1% 51.9%
Both teams to score 51.7% 47.7%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Ligue 2 #8 1477 1502 1502
2025-26 Ligue 2 #9 1482 1514 1497
2024-25 Ligue 2 #10 1477 1531 1519
2023-24 Ligue 2 #17 1488 1598 1447
2022-23 Ligue 2 #16 1498 1578 1435
2021-22 Ligue 2 #9 1527 1541 1496
2020-21 Ligue 2 #6 1456 1624 1574
2019-20 Ligue 2 #14 1457 1559 1469
2018-19 Ligue 2 #15 1515 1586 1441

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 09, 2026 vs Troyes L Grenoble 25.8% · draw 28.4% W ✗
May 02, 2026 at Dunkerque L Grenoble 25.8% · draw 28.1% W ✗
Apr 25, 2026 vs Le Mans L Grenoble 25.6% · draw 27.4% D ✗
Apr 17, 2026 at Montpellier L Grenoble 17.4% · draw 24.7% L ✓
Apr 10, 2026 at Guingamp L Grenoble 19.6% · draw 27.2% D ✗
Apr 03, 2026 vs Clermont W Grenoble 39.0% · draw 31.7% D ✗
Mar 20, 2026 at Laval L Grenoble 34.1% · draw 31.3% L ✓
Mar 14, 2026 vs Saint-Étienne L Grenoble 27.7% · draw 28.5% D ✗
Mar 06, 2026 at Rodez L Grenoble 26.7% · draw 29.9% L ✓
Feb 27, 2026 vs Boulogne W Grenoble 36.0% · draw 31.9% D ✗

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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