Ligue 2 2026-2027: Laval vs Sochaux Prediction - 18 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Laval

Home Team
41%
VS

Sochaux

Away Team
29%
Draw: 30%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 46%
No Goal: 54%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 24.2
Expected Spread: +0.2

Why the Model Leans Laval

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Laval
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +7.1 Sochaux
Results & dominance +2.0 Laval
Attack +1.1 Laval
Defense +1.0 Laval

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 59% for Laval. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Sochaux defense +2.5 Over
Sochaux attack & chance creation +2.0 Under
Form & results +1.2 Over
Laval attack & chance creation +0.8 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 St Etienne 6 5 0 1 17 6 11 15
2 Reims 6 3 3 0 14 8 6 12
3 Montpellier 6 3 2 1 5 4 1 11
4 Red Star 6 3 2 1 6 6 0 11
5 Annecy 6 3 1 2 8 7 1 10
6 Metz 6 2 3 1 8 5 3 9
7 Sochaux 6 2 3 1 3 4 -1 9
8 Dunkerque 6 2 2 2 10 10 0 8
9 Guingamp 6 2 2 2 9 9 0 8
10 Nancy 6 2 1 3 4 4 0 7
11 Rodez 6 2 1 3 11 12 -1 7
12 Grenoble 6 2 1 3 7 10 -3 7
13 Dijon 6 1 3 2 8 9 -1 6
14 Boulogne 6 0 5 1 2 3 -1 5
15 Pau FC 6 1 2 3 4 6 -2 5
16 Clermont 6 0 5 1 3 5 -2 5
17 Nantes 6 1 1 4 7 12 -5 4
18 Laval 6 1 1 4 7 13 -6 4

Recent Trends

Laval L L L D W

  • Last Match: L vs Dijon (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Red Star (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Grenoble (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Metz (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 2 - 1)

Sochaux W D D W D

  • Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Pau FC (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Clermont (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Guingamp (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Red Star (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Laval

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 2.00
Clean Sheets 0

Sochaux

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.33
Goals conceded (avg, away) 0.33
Clean Sheets 4

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Laval a 41% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 30% and Sochaux at 29%. This is a tight call, with Laval only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 52% and sees both teams scoring in 46% of cases.

Match Analysis

Laval arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLLDW from most recent), scoring 6 and conceding 10 with 0 clean sheets. Sochaux arrive with 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (WDDWD from most recent), scoring 3 and conceding 1 with 4 clean sheets. In the table Laval sit 18th with 4 points from 6 games and a goal difference of -6, while Sochaux are 7th with 9 points and a goal difference of -1. That puts Sochaux 5 points clear of their opponent. Laval average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Sochaux average 0.3 scored and 0.3 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Laval), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (7.1 points toward Sochaux), results & dominance (2.0 points toward Laval). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Laval
Goals in last 5 matches
Sochaux
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 52% and Over 2.5 at 48%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Laval matches produced 3.2 goals on average over their last 5, Sochaux matches 0.8. Both teams to score comes in at 46%, no goal for at least one side at 54%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Sochaux defense pulls toward Over by 2.5 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Laval
Corners in last 5 matches
Sochaux
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.3 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 54%, which leaves 46% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Laval
Shots in last 5 matches
Sochaux
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 24.2 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 24. The chance of 24 shots or fewer is 54%, which leaves 46% for 25 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Laval wins by X goals. Negative = Sochaux wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Laval vs Sochaux with expected spread of +0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Laval vs Sochaux
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.2 goals in favour of Laval. The spread model gives 25% to a Laval win by two goals or more and 41% to any Sochaux win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Laval win (41%), Under 2.5 (52%), No Goal (54%). Expected totals: 9.3 corners and 24.2 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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