Ligue 2 2026-2027: Metz vs Saint-Étienne Prediction - 19 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Metz

Home Team
28%
VS

Saint-Étienne

Away Team
44%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 62%
No Goal: 38%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 24.9
Expected Spread: -0.3

Why the Model Leans Saint-Étienne

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Metz
Defense +9.4 Saint-Étienne
Results & dominance +6.5 Saint-Étienne
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.6 Saint-Étienne
Attack +3.1 Saint-Étienne

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 61% for Saint-Étienne. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Saint-Étienne attack & chance creation +2.6 Over
Form & results +1.4 Under
Metz defense +1.3 Over
Metz attack & chance creation +0.9 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 St Etienne 6 5 0 1 17 6 11 15
2 Reims 6 3 3 0 14 8 6 12
3 Montpellier 6 3 2 1 5 4 1 11
4 Red Star 6 3 2 1 6 6 0 11
5 Annecy 6 3 1 2 8 7 1 10
6 Metz 6 2 3 1 8 5 3 9
7 Sochaux 6 2 3 1 3 4 -1 9
8 Dunkerque 6 2 2 2 10 10 0 8
9 Guingamp 6 2 2 2 9 9 0 8
10 Nancy 6 2 1 3 4 4 0 7
11 Rodez 6 2 1 3 11 12 -1 7
12 Grenoble 6 2 1 3 7 10 -3 7
13 Dijon 6 1 3 2 8 9 -1 6
14 Boulogne 6 0 5 1 2 3 -1 5
15 Pau FC 6 1 2 3 4 6 -2 5
16 Clermont 6 0 5 1 3 5 -2 5
17 Nantes 6 1 1 4 7 12 -5 4
18 Laval 6 1 1 4 7 13 -6 4

Recent Trends

Metz L W D D D

  • Last Match: L vs Red Star (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Rodez (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Annecy (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Laval (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Grenoble (Goals: 0 - 0)

Saint-Étienne L W W W W

  • Last Match: L vs Dunkerque (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Montpellier (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Dijon (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Grenoble (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Clermont (Goals: 3 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Metz

Goals scored (avg, home) 2.33
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.00
Clean Sheets 1

Saint-Étienne

Goals scored (avg, away) 2.33
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.33
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Metz a 28% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 28% and St Etienne at 44%. This is a tight call, with St Etienne only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 52% and sees both teams scoring in 62% of cases.

Match Analysis

Metz arrive with 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (LWDDD from most recent), scoring 6 and conceding 4 with 1 clean sheet. St Etienne arrive with 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (LWWWW from most recent), scoring 14 and conceding 6 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Metz sit 6th with 9 points from 6 games and a goal difference of +3, while St Etienne are 1st with 15 points and a goal difference of +11. That puts St Etienne 6 points clear of their opponent. Metz average 2.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five home games, while St Etienne average 2.3 scored and 1.3 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Metz), defense (9.4 points toward St Etienne), results & dominance (6.5 points toward St Etienne). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Metz
Goals in last 5 matches
Saint-Étienne
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 48% and Over 2.5 at 52%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Metz matches produced 2.0 goals on average over their last 5, St Etienne matches 4.0. Both teams to score comes in at 62%, no goal for at least one side at 38%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and St Etienne attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Metz
Corners in last 5 matches
Saint-Étienne
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.7 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 50%, which leaves 50% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Metz
Shots in last 5 matches
Saint-Étienne
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 24.9 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 24. The chance of 24 shots or fewer is 48%, which leaves 52% for 25 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Metz wins by X goals. Negative = Saint-Étienne wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Metz vs Saint-Étienne with expected spread of -0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Metz vs Saint-Étienne
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.3 goals in favour of St Etienne. The spread model gives 19% to a Metz win by two goals or more and 49% to any St Etienne win. A St Etienne win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: St Etienne win (44%), Over 2.5 (52%), Goal (62%). Expected totals: 9.7 corners and 24.9 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel