Ligue 2 2026-2027: Montpellier vs Grenoble Prediction - 9 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Montpellier

Home Team
65%
VS

Grenoble

Away Team
12%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 48%
No Goal: 52%
Expected Corners: 9.1
Expected Shots: 25.2
Expected Spread: +0.9

Why the Model Leans Montpellier

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Montpellier
Defense +9.6 Montpellier
Results & dominance +7.0 Montpellier
Attack +4.6 Montpellier
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +2.3 Montpellier

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 85% for Montpellier. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Grenoble defense +3.1 Over
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Grenoble attack & chance creation +2.6 Under
Montpellier defense +1.7 Over
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +0.9 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 St Etienne 7 5 1 1 19 8 11 16
2 Red Star 7 4 2 1 9 7 2 14
3 Reims 7 3 4 0 15 9 6 13
4 Montpellier 7 3 3 1 6 5 1 12
5 Metz 7 2 4 1 10 7 3 10
6 Nancy 7 3 1 3 8 7 1 10
7 Annecy 7 3 1 3 9 9 0 10
8 Sochaux 7 2 4 1 4 5 -1 10
9 Dijon 7 2 3 2 10 10 0 9
10 Pau FC 7 2 2 3 6 6 0 8
11 Dunkerque 7 2 2 3 10 12 -2 8
12 Guingamp 7 2 2 3 10 12 -2 8
13 Grenoble 7 2 2 3 8 11 -3 8
14 Rodez 7 2 1 4 14 16 -2 7
15 Nantes 7 2 1 4 9 13 -4 7
16 Clermont 7 0 6 1 4 6 -2 6
17 Boulogne 7 0 5 2 3 5 -2 5
18 Laval 7 1 2 4 8 14 -6 5

Recent Trends

Montpellier D W L D W

  • Last Match: D vs Reims (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Pau FC (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs St Etienne (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Boulogne (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Dunkerque (Goals: 1 - 0)

Grenoble D W L W L

  • Last Match: D vs Clermont (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Rodez (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Annecy (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Laval (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs St Etienne (Goals: 0 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Montpellier

Goals scored (avg, home) 0.67
Goals conceded (avg, home) 0.33
Clean Sheets 3

Grenoble

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.50
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.00
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Montpellier a 65% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 23% and Grenoble at 12%. Montpellier are a clear favourite. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 51% and sees both teams scoring in 48% of cases.

Match Analysis

Montpellier arrive with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (DWLDW from most recent), scoring 4 and conceding 4 with 3 clean sheets. Grenoble arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (DWLWL from most recent), scoring 6 and conceding 7 with 2 clean sheets. In the table Montpellier sit 4th with 12 points from 7 games and a goal difference of +1, while Grenoble are 13th with 8 points and a goal difference of -3. That puts Montpellier 4 points clear of their opponent. Montpellier average 0.7 goals scored and 0.3 conceded over their last five home games, while Grenoble average 1.5 scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Montpellier), defense (9.6 points toward Montpellier), results & dominance (7.0 points toward Montpellier). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Montpellier
Goals in last 5 matches
Grenoble
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 49% and Over 2.5 at 51%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Montpellier matches produced 1.6 goals on average over their last 5, Grenoble matches 2.6. Both teams to score comes in at 48%, no goal for at least one side at 52%. In the model's own attribution, Grenoble defense pulls toward Over by 3.1 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Montpellier
Corners in last 5 matches
Grenoble
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.1 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 58%, which leaves 42% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Montpellier
Shots in last 5 matches
Grenoble
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.2 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 54%, which leaves 46% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Montpellier wins by X goals. Negative = Grenoble wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Montpellier vs Grenoble with expected spread of +0.9
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Montpellier vs Grenoble
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.9 goals in favour of Montpellier. The spread model gives 34% to a Montpellier win by two goals or more and 29% to any Grenoble win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Montpellier win (65%), Over 2.5 (51%), No Goal (52%). Expected totals: 9.1 corners and 25.2 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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