Montpellier
Ligue 2 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #8 of 18 in Ligue 2 51 pts · 14W–9D–11L · GD +10
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 2 simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Montpellier?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Montpellier's results were 1.8% easier to call than the Ligue 2 average. How this is measured.
| Market | Montpellier | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 44.8% | 41.5% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 69.0% | 51.9% |
| Both teams to score | 44.8% | 47.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Ligue 2 | #8 | 1498 | 1571 | 1531 |
| 2024-25 | Ligue 1 | #18 | 1478 | 1478 | 1239 |
| 2023-24 | Ligue 1 | #6 | 1498 | 1542 | 1520 |
| 2022-23 | Ligue 1 | #9 | 1518 | 1534 | 1534 |
| 2021-22 | Ligue 1 | #20 | 1471 | 1588 | 1357 |
| 2020-21 | Ligue 1 | #7 | 1482 | 1559 | 1523 |
| 2019-20 | Ligue 1 | #10 | 1471 | 1555 | 1508 |
| 2018-19 | Ligue 1 | #5 | 1471 | 1615 | 1579 |
| 2017-18 | Ligue 1 | #9 | 1518 | 1557 | 1502 |
| 2016-17 | Ligue 1 | #18 | 1518 | 1518 | 1384 |
| 2015-16 | Ligue 1 | #7 | 1467 | 1532 | 1515 |
| 2014-15 | Ligue 1 | #9 | 1471 | 1578 | 1506 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 09, 2026 | at Red Star | L Montpellier 30.8% · draw 31.4% | D ✗ |
| May 02, 2026 | vs Clermont | W Montpellier 56.5% · draw 25.0% | L ✗ |
| Apr 24, 2026 | at Amiens | W Montpellier 47.1% · draw 26.8% | W ✓ |
| Apr 17, 2026 | vs Grenoble | W Montpellier 57.8% · draw 24.7% | W ✓ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | at Annecy | W Montpellier 34.9% · draw 31.2% | D ✗ |
| Apr 04, 2026 | vs Troyes | L Montpellier 31.8% · draw 30.5% | D ✗ |
| Mar 20, 2026 | at Pau FC | W Montpellier 36.2% · draw 30.7% | D ✗ |
| Mar 13, 2026 | vs Laval | W Montpellier 57.1% · draw 24.0% | W ✓ |
| Mar 06, 2026 | at Nancy | L Montpellier 32.6% · draw 31.4% | W ✗ |
| Feb 27, 2026 | vs Reims | L Montpellier 30.1% · draw 30.3% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Ligue 2 title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/montpellier">Ligue 2 title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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