Ligue 2 2026-2027: Montpellier vs Pau FC Prediction - 11 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Montpellier

Home Team
52%
VS

Pau FC

Away Team
20%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.0
Expected Shots: 26.3
Expected Spread: +0.6

Why the Model Leans Montpellier

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Montpellier
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +4.6 Montpellier
Defense +4.4 Montpellier
Attack +1.8 Montpellier

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 72% for Montpellier. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Pau FC defense +2.2 Over
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +0.7 Over
Montpellier attack & chance creation +0.7 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 St Etienne 5 5 0 0 16 4 12 15
2 Annecy 5 3 1 1 7 5 2 10
3 Reims 5 2 3 0 12 7 5 9
4 Metz 5 2 3 0 8 4 4 9
5 Montpellier 5 2 2 1 4 4 0 8
6 Red Star 5 2 2 1 5 6 -1 8
7 Nancy 5 2 1 2 3 2 1 7
8 Rodez 5 2 1 2 11 11 0 7
9 Sochaux 5 1 3 1 2 4 -2 6
10 Dunkerque 5 1 2 2 8 9 -1 5
11 Guingamp 5 1 2 2 7 8 -1 5
12 Pau FC 5 1 2 2 4 5 -1 5
13 Boulogne 5 0 4 1 2 3 -1 4
14 Clermont 5 0 4 1 3 5 -2 4
15 Nantes 5 1 1 3 7 11 -4 4
16 Grenoble 5 1 1 3 6 10 -4 4
17 Laval 5 1 1 3 5 10 -5 4
18 Dijon 5 0 3 2 5 7 -2 3

Recent Trends

Montpellier L D W W D

  • Last Match: L vs St Etienne (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Boulogne (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Dunkerque (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Nancy (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Dijon (Goals: 1 - 1)

Pau FC D D L W L

  • Last Match: D vs Sochaux (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Rodez (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Nancy (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Dijon (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Annecy (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Montpellier

Goals scored (avg, home) 0.50
Goals conceded (avg, home) 0.50
Clean Sheets 3

Pau FC

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.50
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.00
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Montpellier a 52% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 28% and Pau FC at 20%. Montpellier are the favourite, but the gap to the other outcomes is modest. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 52% and sees both teams scoring in 51% of cases.

Match Analysis

Montpellier arrive with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (LDWWD from most recent), scoring 4 and conceding 4 with 3 clean sheets. Pau FC arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (DDLWL from most recent), scoring 4 and conceding 5 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Montpellier sit 5th with 8 points from 5 games and a level goal difference, while Pau FC are 12th with 5 points and a goal difference of -1. That puts Montpellier 3 points clear of their opponent. Montpellier average 0.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over their last five home games, while Pau FC average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Montpellier), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (4.6 points toward Montpellier), defense (4.4 points toward Montpellier). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Montpellier
Goals in last 5 matches
Pau FC
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 48% and Over 2.5 at 52%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Montpellier matches produced 1.6 goals on average over their last 5, Pau FC matches 1.8. Both teams to score comes in at 51%, no goal for at least one side at 49%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Pau FC defense pulls toward Over by 2.2 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Montpellier
Corners in last 5 matches
Pau FC
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.0 corners in total. The single most likely count is 8. The chance of 8 corners or fewer is 46%, which leaves 54% for 9 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Montpellier
Shots in last 5 matches
Pau FC
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 26.3 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 26. The chance of 26 shots or fewer is 53%, which leaves 47% for 27 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Montpellier wins by X goals. Negative = Pau FC wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Montpellier vs Pau FC with expected spread of +0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Montpellier vs Pau FC
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.6 goals in favour of Montpellier. The spread model gives 30% to a Montpellier win by two goals or more and 35% to any Pau FC win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Montpellier win (52%), Over 2.5 (52%), Goal (51%). Expected totals: 9.0 corners and 26.3 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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