Pau FC
Ligue 2 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #9 of 18 in Ligue 2 45 pts · 12W–9D–13L · GD -14
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 2 simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Pau FC?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Pau FC's results were 2.7% harder to call than the Ligue 2 average. How this is measured.
| Market | Pau FC | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 37.9% | 41.5% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 31.0% | 51.9% |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | 47.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Ligue 2 | #14 | 1520 | 1590 | 1435 |
| 2024-25 | Ligue 2 | #15 | 1477 | 1535 | 1460 |
| 2023-24 | Ligue 2 | #16 | 1523 | 1592 | 1462 |
| 2022-23 | Ligue 2 | #10 | 1459 | 1531 | 1492 |
| 2021-22 | Ligue 2 | #14 | 1536 | 1556 | 1465 |
| 2020-21 | Ligue 2 | #8 | 1481 | 1533 | 1523 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 09, 2026 | at Reims | L Pau FC 14.5% · draw 21.8% | L ✓ |
| May 02, 2026 | vs Nancy | W Pau FC 43.2% · draw 29.2% | L ✗ |
| Apr 24, 2026 | at Annecy | L Pau FC 27.9% · draw 30.6% | L ✓ |
| Apr 17, 2026 | vs Guingamp | L Pau FC 33.2% · draw 31.1% | W ✗ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | at Amiens | W Pau FC 38.5% · draw 28.9% | W ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | at Le Mans | L Pau FC 22.2% · draw 27.5% | L ✓ |
| Mar 20, 2026 | vs Montpellier | L Pau FC 33.1% · draw 30.7% | D ✗ |
| Mar 13, 2026 | at Clermont | L Pau FC 31.2% · draw 30.7% | W ✗ |
| Mar 06, 2026 | vs Bastia | W Pau FC 39.4% · draw 30.8% | D ✗ |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vs Saint-Étienne | L Pau FC 33.2% · draw 30.6% | L ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Ligue 2 title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/pau-fc">Ligue 2 title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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