Pau FC

Ligue 2 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1468 · #12 Ligue 2 3W-2D-3L · 11 pts In line Updated Oct 12, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #9 of 18 44.5 expected pts · currently 11 pts after 8 matches

League title 0.4%
Promotion 1.6%
Automatic promotion 1.6%
Promotion barrage 11.5%
Relegation barrage 4.4%
Relegation 5.0%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Ligue 2 simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Pau FC?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Pau FC's results were 2.7% harder to call than the Ligue 2 average. How this is measured.

MarketPau FCLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 37.9% 41.5%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 31.0% 51.9%
Both teams to score 51.7% 47.7%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Ligue 2 #12 1431 1468 1468
2025-26 Ligue 2 #14 1520 1590 1435
2024-25 Ligue 2 #15 1477 1535 1460
2023-24 Ligue 2 #16 1523 1592 1462
2022-23 Ligue 2 #10 1459 1531 1492
2021-22 Ligue 2 #14 1536 1556 1465
2020-21 Ligue 2 #8 1481 1533 1523

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 09, 2026 vs Laval W Pau FC 46.3% · draw 28.4% W ✓
Sep 18, 2026 vs Dunkerque W Pau FC 36.6% · draw 31.1% W ✓
Sep 11, 2026 at Montpellier L Pau FC 20.5% · draw 27.9% L ✓

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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