Ligue 2 2026-2027: Pau FC vs Dunkerque Prediction - 18 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Pau FC

Home Team
37%
VS

Dunkerque

Away Team
32%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 24.8
Expected Spread: +0.1

Why the Model Leans Pau FC

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Pau FC
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +4.6 Dunkerque
Defense +1.8 Dunkerque
Results & dominance +1.6 Dunkerque

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Pau FC. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Dunkerque defense +1.9 Over
Dunkerque attack & chance creation +1.5 Over
Pau FC defense +0.8 Under
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +0.7 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 St Etienne 6 5 0 1 17 6 11 15
2 Reims 6 3 3 0 14 8 6 12
3 Montpellier 6 3 2 1 5 4 1 11
4 Red Star 6 3 2 1 6 6 0 11
5 Annecy 6 3 1 2 8 7 1 10
6 Metz 6 2 3 1 8 5 3 9
7 Sochaux 6 2 3 1 3 4 -1 9
8 Dunkerque 6 2 2 2 10 10 0 8
9 Guingamp 6 2 2 2 9 9 0 8
10 Nancy 6 2 1 3 4 4 0 7
11 Rodez 6 2 1 3 11 12 -1 7
12 Grenoble 6 2 1 3 7 10 -3 7
13 Dijon 6 1 3 2 8 9 -1 6
14 Boulogne 6 0 5 1 2 3 -1 5
15 Pau FC 6 1 2 3 4 6 -2 5
16 Clermont 6 0 5 1 3 5 -2 5
17 Nantes 6 1 1 4 7 12 -5 4
18 Laval 6 1 1 4 7 13 -6 4

Recent Trends

Pau FC L D D L W

  • Last Match: L vs Montpellier (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Sochaux (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Rodez (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Nancy (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Dijon (Goals: 1 - 0)

Dunkerque W D L L D

  • Last Match: W vs St Etienne (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Clermont (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Nancy (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Montpellier (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Reims (Goals: 3 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Pau FC

Goals scored (avg, home) 0.33
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.00
Clean Sheets 1

Dunkerque

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.50
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.50
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Pau FC a 37% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Dunkerque at 32%. This is a tight call, with Pau FC only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 52% and sees both teams scoring in 52% of cases.

Match Analysis

Pau FC arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LDDLW from most recent), scoring 4 and conceding 5 with 1 clean sheet. Dunkerque arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (WDLLD from most recent), scoring 6 and conceding 8 with 0 clean sheets. In the table Pau FC sit 15th with 5 points from 6 games and a goal difference of -2, while Dunkerque are 8th with 8 points and a level goal difference. That puts Dunkerque 3 points clear of their opponent. Pau FC average 0.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Dunkerque average 1.5 scored and 2.5 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Pau FC), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (4.6 points toward Dunkerque), defense (1.8 points toward Dunkerque). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Pau FC
Goals in last 5 matches
Dunkerque
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 48% and Over 2.5 at 52%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Pau FC matches produced 1.8 goals on average over their last 5, Dunkerque matches 2.8. Both teams to score comes in at 52%, no goal for at least one side at 48%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Dunkerque defense pulls toward Over by 1.9 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Pau FC
Corners in last 5 matches
Dunkerque
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.2 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 56%, which leaves 44% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Pau FC
Shots in last 5 matches
Dunkerque
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 24.8 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 24. The chance of 24 shots or fewer is 49%, which leaves 51% for 25 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Pau FC wins by X goals. Negative = Dunkerque wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Pau FC vs Dunkerque with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Pau FC vs Dunkerque
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.1 goals in favour of Pau FC. The spread model gives 23% to a Pau FC win by two goals or more and 43% to any Dunkerque win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Pau FC win (37%), Over 2.5 (52%), Goal (52%). Expected totals: 9.2 corners and 24.8 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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