Ligue 2 2026-2027: Pau FC vs Laval Prediction - 9 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Pau FC

Home Team
46%
VS

Laval

Away Team
25%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 25.5
Expected Spread: +0.4

Why the Model Leans Pau FC

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Pau FC
Attack +1.9 Pau FC
Defense +1.6 Pau FC
Results & dominance +1.4 Laval
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +0.7 Pau FC

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 65% for Pau FC. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Pau FC defense +1.2 Under
Pau FC attack & chance creation +1.1 Over
Form & results +1.0 Over
Laval defense +0.7 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 St Etienne 7 5 1 1 19 8 11 16
2 Red Star 7 4 2 1 9 7 2 14
3 Reims 7 3 4 0 15 9 6 13
4 Montpellier 7 3 3 1 6 5 1 12
5 Metz 7 2 4 1 10 7 3 10
6 Nancy 7 3 1 3 8 7 1 10
7 Annecy 7 3 1 3 9 9 0 10
8 Sochaux 7 2 4 1 4 5 -1 10
9 Dijon 7 2 3 2 10 10 0 9
10 Pau FC 7 2 2 3 6 6 0 8
11 Dunkerque 7 2 2 3 10 12 -2 8
12 Guingamp 7 2 2 3 10 12 -2 8
13 Grenoble 7 2 2 3 8 11 -3 8
14 Rodez 7 2 1 4 14 16 -2 7
15 Nantes 7 2 1 4 9 13 -4 7
16 Clermont 7 0 6 1 4 6 -2 6
17 Boulogne 7 0 5 2 3 5 -2 5
18 Laval 7 1 2 4 8 14 -6 5

Recent Trends

Pau FC W L D D L

  • Last Match: W vs Dunkerque (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Montpellier (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Sochaux (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Rodez (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Nancy (Goals: 0 - 1)

Laval D L L L D

  • Last Match: D vs Sochaux (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Dijon (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Red Star (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Grenoble (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Metz (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Pau FC

Goals scored (avg, home) 0.75
Goals conceded (avg, home) 0.75
Clean Sheets 1

Laval

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.33
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.33
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Pau FC a 46% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 28% and Laval at 25%. Pau FC are the favourite, but the gap to the other outcomes is modest. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 51% and sees both teams scoring in 54% of cases.

Match Analysis

Pau FC arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (WLDDL from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 5 with 1 clean sheet. Laval arrive with 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (DLLLD from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 10 with 0 clean sheets. In the table Pau FC sit 10th with 8 points from 7 games and a level goal difference, while Laval are 18th with 5 points and a goal difference of -6. That puts Pau FC 3 points clear of their opponent. Pau FC average 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over their last five home games, while Laval average 1.3 scored and 2.3 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Pau FC), attack (1.9 points toward Pau FC), defense (1.6 points toward Pau FC). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Pau FC
Goals in last 5 matches
Laval
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 49% and Over 2.5 at 51%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Pau FC matches produced 2.0 goals on average over their last 5, Laval matches 3.0. Both teams to score comes in at 54%, no goal for at least one side at 46%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Pau FC defense pulls toward Under by 1.2 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Pau FC
Corners in last 5 matches
Laval
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.6 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 51%, which leaves 49% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Pau FC
Shots in last 5 matches
Laval
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.5 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 51%, which leaves 49% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Pau FC wins by X goals. Negative = Laval wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Pau FC vs Laval with expected spread of +0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Pau FC vs Laval
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.4 goals in favour of Pau FC. The spread model gives 27% to a Pau FC win by two goals or more and 38% to any Laval win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Pau FC win (46%), Over 2.5 (51%), Goal (54%). Expected totals: 9.6 corners and 25.5 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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