Ligue 2 2026-2027: Red Star vs Metz Prediction - 14 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Red Star

Home Team
37%
VS

Metz

Away Team
32%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 25.0
Expected Spread: +0.0

Why the Model Leans Red Star

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Red Star
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +5.7 Metz
Results & dominance +2.3 Metz

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Red Star. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Red Star defense +1.9 Under
Metz defense +1.6 Over
Red Star attack & chance creation +1.2 Over
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +0.6 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 St Etienne 5 5 0 0 16 4 12 15
2 Annecy 5 3 1 1 7 5 2 10
3 Reims 5 2 3 0 12 7 5 9
4 Metz 5 2 3 0 8 4 4 9
5 Montpellier 5 2 2 1 4 4 0 8
6 Red Star 5 2 2 1 5 6 -1 8
7 Nancy 5 2 1 2 3 2 1 7
8 Rodez 5 2 1 2 11 11 0 7
9 Sochaux 5 1 3 1 2 4 -2 6
10 Dunkerque 5 1 2 2 8 9 -1 5
11 Guingamp 5 1 2 2 7 8 -1 5
12 Pau FC 5 1 2 2 4 5 -1 5
13 Boulogne 5 0 4 1 2 3 -1 4
14 Clermont 5 0 4 1 3 5 -2 4
15 Nantes 5 1 1 3 7 11 -4 4
16 Grenoble 5 1 1 3 6 10 -4 4
17 Laval 5 1 1 3 5 10 -5 4
18 Dijon 5 0 3 2 5 7 -2 3

Recent Trends

Red Star W L D D W

  • Last Match: W vs Laval (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Reims (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Boulogne (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Sochaux (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 1 - 0)

Metz W D D D W

  • Last Match: W vs Rodez (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Annecy (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Laval (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Grenoble (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Guingamp (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Red Star

Goals scored (avg, home) 0.50
Goals conceded (avg, home) 2.00
Clean Sheets 2

Metz

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.50
Goals conceded (avg, away) 0.50
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Red Star a 37% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Metz at 32%. This is a tight call, with Red Star only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 51% and sees both teams scoring in 52% of cases.

Match Analysis

Red Star arrive with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WLDDW from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 6 with 2 clean sheets. Metz arrive with 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (WDDDW from most recent), scoring 8 and conceding 4 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Red Star sit 6th with 8 points from 5 games and a goal difference of -1, while Metz are 4th with 9 points and a goal difference of +4. That puts Metz 1 point clear of their opponent. Red Star average 0.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Metz average 0.5 scored and 0.5 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Red Star), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (5.7 points toward Metz), results & dominance (2.3 points toward Metz). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Red Star
Goals in last 5 matches
Metz
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 51% and Over 2.5 at 49%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Red Star matches produced 2.2 goals on average over their last 5, Metz matches 2.4. Both teams to score comes in at 52%, no goal for at least one side at 48%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Red Star defense pulls toward Under by 1.9 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Red Star
Corners in last 5 matches
Metz
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.3 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 55%, which leaves 45% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Red Star
Shots in last 5 matches
Metz
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.0 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 24. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 55%, which leaves 45% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Red Star wins by X goals. Negative = Metz wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Red Star vs Metz with expected spread of +0.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Red Star vs Metz
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.0 goals in favour of Red Star. The spread model gives 23% to a Red Star win by two goals or more and 43% to any Metz win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Red Star win (37%), Under 2.5 (51%), Goal (52%). Expected totals: 9.3 corners and 25.0 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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