Ligue 2 2026-2027: Rodez vs Grenoble Prediction - 11 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Rodez

Home Team
54%
VS

Grenoble

Away Team
21%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 24.6
Expected Spread: +0.7

Why the Model Leans Rodez

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Rodez
Results & dominance +5.4 Rodez
Attack +4.4 Rodez
Defense +3.0 Rodez

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 72% for Rodez. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Grenoble defense +3.4 Over
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Grenoble attack & chance creation +2.0 Under
Form & results +1.8 Over
Rodez defense +1.0 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 St Etienne 5 5 0 0 16 4 12 15
2 Annecy 5 3 1 1 7 5 2 10
3 Reims 5 2 3 0 12 7 5 9
4 Metz 5 2 3 0 8 4 4 9
5 Montpellier 5 2 2 1 4 4 0 8
6 Red Star 5 2 2 1 5 6 -1 8
7 Nancy 5 2 1 2 3 2 1 7
8 Rodez 5 2 1 2 11 11 0 7
9 Sochaux 5 1 3 1 2 4 -2 6
10 Dunkerque 5 1 2 2 8 9 -1 5
11 Guingamp 5 1 2 2 7 8 -1 5
12 Pau FC 5 1 2 2 4 5 -1 5
13 Boulogne 5 0 4 1 2 3 -1 4
14 Clermont 5 0 4 1 3 5 -2 4
15 Nantes 5 1 1 3 7 11 -4 4
16 Grenoble 5 1 1 3 6 10 -4 4
17 Laval 5 1 1 3 5 10 -5 4
18 Dijon 5 0 3 2 5 7 -2 3

Recent Trends

Rodez L D W L W

  • Last Match: L vs Metz (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Pau FC (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 5 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Annecy (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Laval (Goals: 3 - 1)

Grenoble L W L D L

  • Last Match: L vs Annecy (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Laval (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs St Etienne (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Metz (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Dunkerque (Goals: 2 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Rodez

Goals scored (avg, home) 2.50
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.50
Clean Sheets 0

Grenoble

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.67
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.67
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Rodez a 54% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 25% and Grenoble at 21%. Rodez are the favourite, but the gap to the other outcomes is modest. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 51% and sees both teams scoring in 51% of cases.

Match Analysis

Rodez arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LDWLW from most recent), scoring 11 and conceding 11 with 0 clean sheets. Grenoble arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (LWLDL from most recent), scoring 6 and conceding 10 with 2 clean sheets. In the table Rodez sit 8th with 7 points from 5 games and a level goal difference, while Grenoble are 16th with 4 points and a goal difference of -4. That puts Rodez 3 points clear of their opponent. Rodez average 2.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over their last five home games, while Grenoble average 1.7 scored and 2.7 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Rodez), results & dominance (5.4 points toward Rodez), attack (4.4 points toward Rodez). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Rodez
Goals in last 5 matches
Grenoble
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 49% and Over 2.5 at 51%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Rodez matches produced 4.4 goals on average over their last 5, Grenoble matches 3.2. Both teams to score comes in at 51%, no goal for at least one side at 49%. In the model's own attribution, Grenoble defense pulls toward Over by 3.4 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Rodez
Corners in last 5 matches
Grenoble
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.7 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 50%, which leaves 50% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Rodez
Shots in last 5 matches
Grenoble
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 24.6 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 24. The chance of 24 shots or fewer is 51%, which leaves 49% for 25 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Rodez wins by X goals. Negative = Grenoble wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Rodez vs Grenoble with expected spread of +0.7
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Rodez vs Grenoble
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.7 goals in favour of Rodez. The spread model gives 31% to a Rodez win by two goals or more and 33% to any Grenoble win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Rodez win (54%), Over 2.5 (51%), Goal (51%). Expected totals: 9.7 corners and 24.6 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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