Rodez

Ligue 2 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1509 · #8 Ligue 2 2W-1D-5L · 7 pts Chaos club Updated Oct 12, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #10 of 18 44.2 expected pts · currently 7 pts after 8 matches

League title 0.3%
Promotion 1.4%
Automatic promotion 1.4%
Promotion barrage 11.0%
Relegation barrage 4.8%
Relegation 5.9%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Ligue 2 simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Rodez?

Chaos club 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Rodez's results were 15.3% harder to call than the Ligue 2 average. How this is measured.

MarketRodezLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 17.2% 41.5%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 44.8% 51.9%
Both teams to score 41.4% 47.7%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Ligue 2 #8 1614 1634 1509
2025-26 Ligue 2 #1 1498 1661 1661
2024-25 Ligue 2 #12 1545 1563 1500
2023-24 Ligue 2 #5 1519 1621 1593
2022-23 Ligue 2 #9 1483 1519 1516
2021-22 Ligue 2 #11 1466 1550 1479
2020-21 Ligue 2 #10 1481 1551 1494
2019-20 Ligue 2 #16 1515 1536 1453

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 10, 2026 at Saint-Étienne L Rodez 10.6% · draw 16.6% L ✓
Sep 18, 2026 vs Nancy W Rodez 40.5% · draw 30.4% L ✗
Sep 11, 2026 vs Grenoble W Rodez 54.3% · draw 24.9% L ✗

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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