Ligue 2 2026-2027: Rodez vs Nancy Prediction - 18 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Rodez

Home Team
41%
VS

Nancy

Away Team
29%
Draw: 30%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 24.7
Expected Spread: +0.3

Why the Model Leans Rodez

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Rodez
Defense +3.6 Nancy
Attack +1.9 Rodez
Results & dominance +1.6 Nancy
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.2 Nancy

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 58% for Rodez. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Rodez attack & chance creation +2.6 Over
Rodez defense +2.1 Under
Nancy attack & chance creation +2.0 Under
Nancy defense +0.8 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 St Etienne 6 5 0 1 17 6 11 15
2 Reims 6 3 3 0 14 8 6 12
3 Montpellier 6 3 2 1 5 4 1 11
4 Red Star 6 3 2 1 6 6 0 11
5 Annecy 6 3 1 2 8 7 1 10
6 Metz 6 2 3 1 8 5 3 9
7 Sochaux 6 2 3 1 3 4 -1 9
8 Dunkerque 6 2 2 2 10 10 0 8
9 Guingamp 6 2 2 2 9 9 0 8
10 Nancy 6 2 1 3 4 4 0 7
11 Rodez 6 2 1 3 11 12 -1 7
12 Grenoble 6 2 1 3 7 10 -3 7
13 Dijon 6 1 3 2 8 9 -1 6
14 Boulogne 6 0 5 1 2 3 -1 5
15 Pau FC 6 1 2 3 4 6 -2 5
16 Clermont 6 0 5 1 3 5 -2 5
17 Nantes 6 1 1 4 7 12 -5 4
18 Laval 6 1 1 4 7 13 -6 4

Recent Trends

Rodez L L D W L

  • Last Match: L vs Grenoble (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Metz (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Pau FC (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 5 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Annecy (Goals: 0 - 2)

Nancy L L W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Reims (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Nantes (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Dunkerque (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Pau FC (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Montpellier (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Rodez

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.67
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.33
Clean Sheets 0

Nancy

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.33
Goals conceded (avg, away) 0.33
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Rodez a 41% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 30% and Nancy at 29%. This is a tight call, with Rodez only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 53% and sees both teams scoring in 49% of cases.

Match Analysis

Rodez arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLDWL from most recent), scoring 8 and conceding 11 with 0 clean sheets. Nancy arrive with 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLWWL from most recent), scoring 4 and conceding 4 with 2 clean sheets. In the table Rodez sit 11th with 7 points from 6 games and a goal difference of -1, while Nancy are 10th with 7 points and a level goal difference. The two sides are level on points. Rodez average 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over their last five home games, while Nancy average 0.3 scored and 0.3 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Rodez), defense (3.6 points toward Nancy), attack (1.9 points toward Rodez). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Rodez
Goals in last 5 matches
Nancy
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 53% and Over 2.5 at 47%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Rodez matches produced 3.8 goals on average over their last 5, Nancy matches 1.6. Both teams to score comes in at 49%, no goal for at least one side at 51%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Rodez attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Rodez
Corners in last 5 matches
Nancy
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.2 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 57%, which leaves 43% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Rodez
Shots in last 5 matches
Nancy
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 24.7 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 24. The chance of 24 shots or fewer is 50%, which leaves 50% for 25 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Rodez wins by X goals. Negative = Nancy wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Rodez vs Nancy with expected spread of +0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Rodez vs Nancy
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.3 goals in favour of Rodez. The spread model gives 27% to a Rodez win by two goals or more and 38% to any Nancy win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Rodez win (41%), Under 2.5 (53%), No Goal (51%). Expected totals: 9.2 corners and 24.7 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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