Ligue 2 2026-2027: Sochaux vs Nantes Prediction - 12 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Sochaux

Home Team
29%
VS

Nantes

Away Team
43%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.1
Expected Shots: 24.6
Expected Spread: -0.6

Why the Model Leans Nantes

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Sochaux
Defense +9.4 Nantes
Results & dominance +8.9 Nantes
Attack +4.6 Nantes
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +0.6 Sochaux

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 60% for Nantes. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Sochaux attack & chance creation +3.8 Under
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Sochaux defense +1.3 Over
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +0.9 Over
Form & results +0.6 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 St Etienne 5 5 0 0 16 4 12 15
2 Annecy 5 3 1 1 7 5 2 10
3 Reims 5 2 3 0 12 7 5 9
4 Metz 5 2 3 0 8 4 4 9
5 Montpellier 5 2 2 1 4 4 0 8
6 Red Star 5 2 2 1 5 6 -1 8
7 Nancy 5 2 1 2 3 2 1 7
8 Rodez 5 2 1 2 11 11 0 7
9 Sochaux 5 1 3 1 2 4 -2 6
10 Dunkerque 5 1 2 2 8 9 -1 5
11 Guingamp 5 1 2 2 7 8 -1 5
12 Pau FC 5 1 2 2 4 5 -1 5
13 Boulogne 5 0 4 1 2 3 -1 4
14 Clermont 5 0 4 1 3 5 -2 4
15 Nantes 5 1 1 3 7 11 -4 4
16 Grenoble 5 1 1 3 6 10 -4 4
17 Laval 5 1 1 3 5 10 -5 4
18 Dijon 5 0 3 2 5 7 -2 3

Recent Trends

Sochaux D D W D L

  • Last Match: D vs Pau FC (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Clermont (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Guingamp (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Red Star (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs St Etienne (Goals: 0 - 3)

Nantes W D L L L

  • Last Match: W vs Nancy (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Guingamp (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Rodez (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Laval (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Red Star (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sochaux

Goals scored (avg, home) 0.50
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.50
Clean Sheets 3

Nantes

Goals scored (avg, away) 2.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.50
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Sochaux a 29% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 28% and Nantes at 43%. This is a tight call, with Nantes only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 53% and sees both teams scoring in 52% of cases.

Match Analysis

Sochaux arrive with 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (DDWDL from most recent), scoring 2 and conceding 4 with 3 clean sheets. Nantes arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (WDLLL from most recent), scoring 7 and conceding 11 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Sochaux sit 9th with 6 points from 5 games and a goal difference of -2, while Nantes are 15th with 4 points and a goal difference of -4. That puts Sochaux 2 points clear of their opponent. Sochaux average 0.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over their last five home games, while Nantes average 2.0 scored and 2.5 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Sochaux), defense (9.4 points toward Nantes), results & dominance (8.9 points toward Nantes). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sochaux
Goals in last 5 matches
Nantes
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 53% and Over 2.5 at 47%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Sochaux matches produced 1.2 goals on average over their last 5, Nantes matches 3.6. Both teams to score comes in at 52%, no goal for at least one side at 48%. In the model's own attribution, Sochaux attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 3.8 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Sochaux
Corners in last 5 matches
Nantes
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.1 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 57%, which leaves 42% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sochaux
Shots in last 5 matches
Nantes
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 24.6 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 24. The chance of 24 shots or fewer is 51%, which leaves 49% for 25 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Sochaux wins by X goals. Negative = Nantes wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Sochaux vs Nantes with expected spread of -0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Sochaux vs Nantes
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.6 goals in favour of Nantes. The spread model gives 15% to a Sochaux win by two goals or more and 55% to any Nantes win. A Nantes win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Nantes win (43%), Under 2.5 (53%), Goal (52%). Expected totals: 9.1 corners and 24.6 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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