Ligue 2 2026-2027: Saint-Étienne vs Rodez Prediction - 10 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Saint-Étienne

Home Team
73%
VS

Rodez

Away Team
11%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 25.4
Expected Spread: +0.8

Why the Model Leans Saint-Étienne

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Saint-Étienne
Defense +9.2 Saint-Étienne
Results & dominance +8.5 Saint-Étienne
Attack +5.5 Saint-Étienne
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.2 Saint-Étienne

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 87% for Saint-Étienne. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Rodez attack & chance creation +2.9 Over
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Saint-Étienne attack & chance creation +1.1 Over
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +1.0 Over
Rodez defense +0.7 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 St Etienne 7 5 1 1 19 8 11 16
2 Red Star 7 4 2 1 9 7 2 14
3 Reims 7 3 4 0 15 9 6 13
4 Montpellier 7 3 3 1 6 5 1 12
5 Metz 7 2 4 1 10 7 3 10
6 Nancy 7 3 1 3 8 7 1 10
7 Annecy 7 3 1 3 9 9 0 10
8 Sochaux 7 2 4 1 4 5 -1 10
9 Dijon 7 2 3 2 10 10 0 9
10 Pau FC 7 2 2 3 6 6 0 8
11 Dunkerque 7 2 2 3 10 12 -2 8
12 Guingamp 7 2 2 3 10 12 -2 8
13 Grenoble 7 2 2 3 8 11 -3 8
14 Rodez 7 2 1 4 14 16 -2 7
15 Nantes 7 2 1 4 9 13 -4 7
16 Clermont 7 0 6 1 4 6 -2 6
17 Boulogne 7 0 5 2 3 5 -2 5
18 Laval 7 1 2 4 8 14 -6 5

Recent Trends

Saint-Étienne D L W W W

  • Last Match: D vs Metz (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Dunkerque (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Montpellier (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Dijon (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Grenoble (Goals: 4 - 0)

Rodez L L L D W

  • Last Match: L vs Nancy (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Grenoble (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Metz (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Pau FC (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 5 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Saint-Étienne

Goals scored (avg, home) 3.33
Goals conceded (avg, home) 0.67
Clean Sheets 1

Rodez

Goals scored (avg, away) 2.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.67
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives St Etienne a 73% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 17% and Rodez at 11%. St Etienne are a clear favourite. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 53% and sees both teams scoring in 59% of cases.

Match Analysis

St Etienne arrive with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (DLWWW from most recent), scoring 13 and conceding 7 with 1 clean sheet. Rodez arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLLDW from most recent), scoring 11 and conceding 13 with 0 clean sheets. In the table St Etienne sit 1st with 16 points from 7 games and a goal difference of +11, while Rodez are 14th with 7 points and a goal difference of -2. That puts St Etienne 9 points clear of their opponent. St Etienne average 3.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over their last five home games, while Rodez average 2.0 scored and 2.7 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward St Etienne), defense (9.2 points toward St Etienne), results & dominance (8.5 points toward St Etienne). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Saint-Étienne
Goals in last 5 matches
Rodez
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 47% and Over 2.5 at 53%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: St Etienne matches produced 4.0 goals on average over their last 5, Rodez matches 4.8. Both teams to score comes in at 59%, no goal for at least one side at 41%. In the model's own attribution, Rodez attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 2.9 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Saint-Étienne
Corners in last 5 matches
Rodez
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.9 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 47%, which leaves 53% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Saint-Étienne
Shots in last 5 matches
Rodez
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.4 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 52%, which leaves 48% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Saint-Étienne wins by X goals. Negative = Rodez wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Saint-Étienne vs Rodez with expected spread of +0.8
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Saint-Étienne vs Rodez
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.8 goals in favour of St Etienne. The spread model gives 33% to a St Etienne win by two goals or more and 31% to any Rodez win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: St Etienne win (73%), Over 2.5 (53%), Goal (59%). Expected totals: 9.9 corners and 25.4 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel