Premier League 2025-2026: Chelsea vs Tottenham Prediction - 19 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Chelsea

Home Team
53%
VS

Tottenham

Away Team
24%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 24.1
Expected Spread: +0.5

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 37 25 7 5 69 26 43 82
2 Man City 36 23 8 5 75 32 43 77
3 Man United 37 19 11 7 66 50 16 68
4 Aston Villa 37 18 8 11 54 48 6 62
5 Liverpool 37 17 8 12 62 52 10 59
6 Bournemouth 36 13 16 7 56 52 4 55
7 Brighton 37 14 11 12 52 43 9 53
8 Brentford 37 14 10 13 54 51 3 52
9 Sunderland 37 13 12 12 40 47 -7 51
10 Chelsea 36 13 10 13 55 49 6 49
11 Newcastle 37 14 7 16 53 53 0 49
12 Everton 37 13 10 14 47 49 -2 49
13 Fulham 37 14 7 16 45 51 -6 49
14 Leeds 37 11 14 12 49 53 -4 47
15 Crystal Palace 37 11 12 14 40 49 -9 45
16 Nott'm Forest 37 11 10 16 47 50 -3 43
17 Tottenham 36 9 11 16 46 55 -9 38
18 West Ham 37 9 9 19 43 65 -22 36
19 Burnley 37 4 9 24 37 74 -37 21
20 Wolves 37 3 10 24 26 67 -41 19

Recent Trends

Chelsea D L L L L

  • Last Match: D vs Liverpool (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 0 - 3)

Tottenham D W W D L

  • Last Match: D vs Leeds (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Aston Villa (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Wolves (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Brighton (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Sunderland (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Chelsea

xG (avg) 1.78
xGA (avg) 1.44
Clean Sheets 0

Tottenham

xG (avg) 1.06
xGA (avg) 1.35
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Chelsea are slight favourites at Stamford Bridge, with a 53.0% chance of taking all three points against Tottenham, who are given a 24.0% probability of an away win (23.0% draw). The model leans towards a low‑scoring home victory, with an *under 2.5* goals prediction at 50.0%. In the table, Chelsea sit 9th on 49 points, while Spurs are down in 17th on 38 points and still looking nervously over their shoulders at the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

Chelsea come into this derby on a poor run of form: one draw and two defeats in their last three, with just one goal scored and seven conceded across those games. The 3-0 loss at Brighton and 3-1 home defeat to Nottingham Forest exposed a fragile back line and an attack short on conviction, even if they generated plenty of shots (21 attempts against Forest). The advanced numbers, though, tell a softer story: over their last five matches Chelsea have averaged only 0.4 goals scored but 1.784 expected goals, suggesting wasteful finishing rather than a complete attacking breakdown. Defensively they concede 1.8 goals per game against 1.44 expected, hinting at lapses and perhaps some misfortune at the back. Tottenham arrive in better shape with a three‑match unbeaten run: back‑to‑back away wins at Aston Villa (2-1) and Wolves (1-0), followed by a 1-1 home draw with Leeds. They have been tight without being spectacular – averaging 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five, backed up by 1.062 xG for and 1.354 xG against. That balance points to a side that is competitive in most games but rarely cuts loose. One clean sheet in five underlines that Spurs are not watertight, yet they have been doing just enough to edge tight contests, especially away from home.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Chelsea
Goals in last 5 matches
Tottenham
Goals in last 5 matches
The model slightly favours an *under 2.5* goals prediction at 50.0%, despite expecting at least one goal in the match (58.0% probability of “goal”). Two of Chelsea’s last three games went over 2.5 goals, but that was driven more by their defensive leaks than their own scoring, given their 0.4 goals-per-game average. Spurs have seen two of their last three finish under 2.5 (1-0 at Wolves, 1-1 vs Leeds), and their recent xG profile (1.062 for, 1.354 against) fits the picture of tight, cagey contests. Combined with Chelsea’s underperforming attack versus a modest Spurs frontline, a narrow scoreline looks more likely than a shoot‑out.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Chelsea
Corners in last 5 matches
Tottenham
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.95, pointing to around ten corners as a reasonable corners prediction. Chelsea’s last three produced 7, 11 and 11 corners respectively, while Spurs’ games generated 16, 10 and 10, showing both sides are capable of racking up set‑pieces when they get on the front foot. Chelsea’s 10 corners against Forest and Tottenham’s 14 against Leeds underline how both teams, when chasing the game or pressing high, force plenty of balls behind – something that supports the predicted corners figure being close to double digits.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Chelsea
Shots in last 5 matches
Tottenham
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total stands at 24.14, and that shots prediction fits well with recent evidence. Chelsea’s last three matches saw them take 6, 21 and 6 attempts, while allowing 8, 6 and 15 – big swings that reflect their inconsistency. Spurs, by contrast, have been steadier, with 16, 10 and 11 shots taken in their last three, conceding 11 in each of those games. Given both sides’ xG numbers (Chelsea at 1.784 for, Spurs at 1.062 for over their last five), a mid‑20s total for expected shots aligns with a match where chances come, but not in relentless waves.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Chelsea wins by X goals. Negative = Tottenham wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Chelsea vs Tottenham with expected spread of +0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Chelsea vs Tottenham
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is Chelsea -0.5, meaning the home side are expected to edge it by a single goal. Over their last three, Chelsea’s aggregate goal difference is -5 (1 scored, 6 conceded), while Tottenham are at +2 (4 scored, 2 conceded), so the expected spread leans heavily on Chelsea’s home advantage and the model’s 53.0% win probability. With Spurs’ attack averaging just 1.0 goal per game recently and Chelsea’s xG suggesting they should be scoring more than they are, a narrow blues win fits both the data and the probabilities.

Final Prediction

Chelsea’s edge lies in their underlying numbers and home advantage: they create enough chances to win matches, even if recent results haven’t reflected it. Tottenham’s resilience and recent away form mean this should be tight, but their modest attacking output could be the difference. The key factor to watch will be whether Chelsea finally turn their xG into goals or if Spurs can drag the game into another low‑margin scrap.

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