Chelsea

Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1443 · #16 Premier League Chaos club Updated May 18, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #16 of 20 46.0 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 0.5%
Champions League 4.9%
Europa League 5.5%
Relegation 25.1%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full Premier League simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Chelsea?

Chaos club 2025-26 · 31 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Chelsea's results were 15.6% harder to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.

MarketChelseaLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 38.7% 47.8%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 58.1% 52.8%
Both teams to score 61.3% 53.5%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 Premier League #16 1498 1590 1443
2024-25 Premier League #4 1467 1644 1610
2023-24 Premier League #4 1498 1624 1624
2022-23 Premier League #16 1529 1575 1418
2021-22 Premier League #4 1522 1680 1586
2020-21 Premier League #5 1533 1652 1599
2019-20 Premier League #5 1477 1622 1561
2018-19 Premier League #3 1534 1637 1587
2017-18 Premier League #5 1471 1634 1567
2016-17 Premier League #1 1518 1740 1734
2015-16 Premier League #10 1498 1584 1535
2014-15 Premier League #1 1533 1736 1691

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 09, 2026 at Liverpool L Chelsea 24.7% · draw 22.2% D ✗
May 04, 2026 vs Nottingham Forest W Chelsea 51.7% · draw 23.4% L ✗
Apr 21, 2026 at Brighton W Chelsea 40.5% · draw 25.0% L ✗
Apr 18, 2026 vs Manchester United W Chelsea 45.6% · draw 24.5% L ✗
Apr 12, 2026 vs Manchester City L Chelsea 29.7% · draw 24.2% L ✓
Mar 21, 2026 at Everton W Chelsea 52.7% · draw 22.0% L ✗
Mar 14, 2026 vs Newcastle W Chelsea 61.1% · draw 19.6% L ✗
Mar 04, 2026 at Aston Villa W Chelsea 45.1% · draw 24.7% W ✓
Mar 01, 2026 at Arsenal L Chelsea 21.7% · draw 21.2% L ✓
Feb 21, 2026 vs Burnley W Chelsea 83.9% · draw 9.1% D ✗

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