Chelsea
Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #9 of 20 53.5 expected pts · currently 10 pts after 6 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #10 of 20 in Premier League 52 pts · 14W-10D-14L · GD +6
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Chelsea?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 27 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Chelsea's results were 3.7% harder to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.
| Market | Chelsea | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 44.4% | 50.5% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 51.8% | 52.7% |
| Both teams to score | 51.8% | 52.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Premier League | #7 | 1529 | 1546 | 1523 |
| 2025-26 | Premier League | #16 | 1498 | 1590 | 1443 |
| 2024-25 | Premier League | #4 | 1467 | 1644 | 1610 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | #4 | 1498 | 1624 | 1624 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | #16 | 1529 | 1575 | 1418 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | #4 | 1522 | 1680 | 1586 |
| 2020-21 | Premier League | #5 | 1533 | 1652 | 1599 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | #5 | 1477 | 1622 | 1561 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | #3 | 1534 | 1637 | 1587 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | #5 | 1471 | 1634 | 1567 |
| 2016-17 | Premier League | #1 | 1518 | 1740 | 1734 |
| 2015-16 | Premier League | #10 | 1498 | 1584 | 1535 |
| 2014-15 | Premier League | #1 | 1533 | 1736 | 1691 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Bournemouth | W Chelsea 62.6% · draw 20.7% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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