Leeds
Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #5 of 20 56.3 expected pts · currently 9 pts after 6 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #14 of 20 in Premier League 47 pts · 11W-14D-13L · GD -7
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Leeds?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 28 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Leeds's results were 8.7% harder to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.
| Market | Leeds | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 35.7% | 50.5% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 46.4% | 52.7% |
| Both teams to score | 53.6% | 52.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Premier League | #6 | 1529 | 1550 | 1527 |
| 2025-26 | Premier League | #5 | 1518 | 1540 | 1540 |
| 2024-25 | Championship | #2 | 1562 | 1768 | 1755 |
| 2023-24 | Championship | #3 | 1636 | 1739 | 1588 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | #19 | 1518 | 1541 | 1326 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | #15 | 1477 | 1483 | 1440 |
| 2020-21 | Premier League | #6 | 1482 | 1591 | 1591 |
| 2019-20 | Championship | #1 | 1544 | 1681 | 1681 |
| 2018-19 | Championship | #11 | 1484 | 1652 | 1510 |
| 2017-18 | Championship | #18 | 1547 | 1630 | 1438 |
| 2016-17 | Championship | #8 | 1482 | 1651 | 1541 |
| 2015-16 | Championship | #12 | 1486 | 1548 | 1504 |
| 2014-15 | Championship | #15 | 1424 | 1566 | 1479 |
| 2013-14 | Championship | #19 | 1502 | 1547 | 1424 |
| 2012-13 | Championship | #20 | 1460 | 1539 | 1467 |
| 2011-12 | Championship | #18 | 1507 | 1569 | 1420 |
| 2010-11 | Championship | #8 | 1424 | 1597 | 1545 |
| 2009-10 | League One | #7 | 1639 | 1735 | 1565 |
| 2008-09 | League One | #2 | 1628 | 1662 | 1662 |
| 2007-08 | League One | #3 | 1528 | 1684 | 1618 |
| 2006-07 | Championship | #20 | 1569 | 1569 | 1435 |
| 2005-06 | Championship | #5 | 1518 | 1658 | 1570 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
The Premier League title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/leeds">Premier League title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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