Leeds

Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1540 · #5 Premier League Chaos club Updated May 18, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #9 of 20 53.1 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 2.4%
Champions League 17.6%
Europa League 13.1%
Relegation 8.7%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full Premier League simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Leeds?

Chaos club 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Leeds's results were 16.7% harder to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.

MarketLeedsLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 31.2% 47.8%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 43.8% 52.8%
Both teams to score 53.1% 53.5%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 Premier League #5 1518 1540 1540
2024-25 Championship #2 1562 1768 1755
2023-24 Championship #3 1636 1739 1588
2022-23 Premier League #19 1518 1541 1326
2021-22 Premier League #15 1477 1483 1440
2020-21 Premier League #6 1482 1591 1591
2019-20 Championship #1 1544 1681 1681
2018-19 Championship #11 1484 1652 1510
2017-18 Championship #18 1547 1630 1438
2016-17 Championship #8 1482 1651 1541
2015-16 Championship #12 1486 1548 1504
2014-15 Championship #15 1424 1566 1479
2013-14 Championship #19 1502 1547 1424
2012-13 Championship #20 1460 1539 1467
2011-12 Championship #18 1507 1569 1420
2010-11 Championship #8 1424 1597 1545
2009-10 League One #7 1639 1735 1565
2008-09 League One #2 1628 1662 1662
2007-08 League One #3 1528 1684 1618
2006-07 Championship #20 1569 1569 1435
2005-06 Championship #5 1518 1658 1570

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 17, 2026 vs Brighton L Leeds 35.7% · draw 25.5% W ✗
May 11, 2026 at Tottenham L Leeds 27.9% · draw 24.9% D ✗
May 01, 2026 vs Burnley W Leeds 73.2% · draw 14.3% W ✓
Apr 22, 2026 at Bournemouth L Leeds 24.0% · draw 22.9% D ✗
Apr 18, 2026 vs Wolves W Leeds 66.1% · draw 17.5% W ✓
Apr 13, 2026 at Manchester United L Leeds 14.5% · draw 16.0% W ✗
Mar 21, 2026 vs Brentford W Leeds 42.7% · draw 24.7% D ✗
Mar 15, 2026 at Crystal Palace L Leeds 28.8% · draw 24.6% D ✗
Mar 03, 2026 vs Sunderland W Leeds 61.5% · draw 19.5% L ✗
Feb 28, 2026 vs Manchester City L Leeds 21.1% · draw 19.4% L ✓

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