Premier League 2025-2026: Crystal Palace vs Newcastle Prediction - 12 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Crystal Palace

Home Team
40%
VS

Newcastle

Away Team
35%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 24.8

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 31 21 7 3 61 22 39 70
2 Man City 30 18 7 5 60 28 32 61
3 Man United 31 15 10 6 56 43 13 55
4 Aston Villa 31 16 6 9 42 37 5 54
5 Liverpool 31 14 7 10 50 42 8 49
6 Chelsea 31 13 9 9 53 38 15 48
7 Brentford 31 13 7 11 46 42 4 46
8 Everton 31 13 7 11 37 35 2 46
9 Fulham 31 13 5 13 43 44 -1 44
10 Brighton 31 11 10 10 41 37 4 43
11 Sunderland 31 11 10 10 32 36 -4 43
12 Newcastle 31 12 6 13 44 45 -1 42
13 Bournemouth 31 9 15 7 46 48 -2 42
14 Crystal Palace 30 10 9 11 33 35 -2 39
15 Leeds 31 7 12 12 37 48 -11 33
16 Nott'm Forest 31 8 8 15 31 43 -12 32
17 Tottenham 31 7 9 15 40 50 -10 30
18 West Ham 31 7 8 16 36 57 -21 29
19 Burnley 31 4 8 19 33 61 -28 20
20 Wolves 31 3 8 20 24 54 -30 17

Recent Trends

Crystal Palace D W L W L

  • Last Match: D vs Leeds (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Wolves (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Burnley (Goals: 2 - 3)

Newcastle L W W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Sunderland (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Chelsea (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Crystal Palace

xG (avg) 1.69
xGA (avg) 1.73
Clean Sheets 2

Newcastle

xG (avg) 1.02
xGA (avg) 1.83
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Crystal Palace are marginal favourites here, with a 40.0% probability of a home win against Newcastle’s 35.0%, and a 25.0% chance of a draw, so the edge goes to the hosts. The model points towards an **over 2.5 goals** game (56.0% probability), suggesting an open contest rather than a cagey one. In the table, Newcastle sit 12th on 42 points, just three ahead of 14th-placed Palace on 39, underlining how tight this mid-table clash is.

Match Analysis

Palace come into this with mixed form: a goalless home draw with Leeds, an impressive 3-1 win away at Tottenham, and a narrow 2-1 defeat at Manchester United. They’ve shown they can dig in at home (clean sheet vs Leeds) and punch upwards away from Selhurst Park. Across their last five, they average 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, but their xG tells a more positive story: 1.69 expected goals for and 1.734 against per game, hinting that they’re creating more than their raw scoring numbers suggest. Newcastle’s last three results are similarly uneven but competitive: a 2-1 home loss to Sunderland, followed by gritty wins over Chelsea (1-0 away) and Manchester United (2-1 at home). They average 1.0 goal scored and 1.4 conceded in their last five, with an attacking xG of 1.02 and defensive xG against of 1.828, indicating they’re often allowing better chances than they create. That defensive vulnerability, combined with only one clean sheet in five, could be significant against a Palace side whose underlying attacking numbers are trending upwards.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Crystal Palace
Goals in last 5 matches
Newcastle
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s **over 2.5 prediction** at 56.0% leans towards goals. Two of Palace’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (3-1 vs Tottenham, 1-2 vs Man United), with only the 0-0 vs Leeds staying under. Newcastle, likewise, have seen two of their last three go over 2.5 (1-2 vs Sunderland, 2-1 vs Man United), with just the 1-0 at Chelsea going under 2.5. Palace’s average of 0.8 scored and 1.2 conceded, set against xG figures of 1.69 for and 1.734 against, plus Newcastle’s 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded with 1.02 xG for and 1.828 against, all point towards enough chances being created for this to clear the 2.5 line.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Crystal Palace
Corners in last 5 matches
Newcastle
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The **predicted corners** total is 9.69, suggesting a moderate count rather than a barrage of set-piece situations. Palace’s last three have produced 11, 9 and 8 total corners respectively, while Newcastle’s have seen 14, 9 and 6, reflecting matches where both sides have alternated between aggressive and more controlled patterns. Given Palace’s ability to force corners at home (8 against Leeds) and Newcastle’s willingness to push on—9 corners in defeat to Sunderland—this corners prediction aligns with two sides that will look to attack but not relentlessly camp in the opposition box.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Crystal Palace
Shots in last 5 matches
Newcastle
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The **expected shots** figure of 24.8 suggests a lively game in terms of attempts on goal. Palace’s last three have seen shot totals of 22, 21 and 28, while Newcastle’s have produced 33, 29 and 26, backing up a solid **shots prediction** in the mid-20s to low-30s range. Those shot volumes fit neatly with the xG profiles of both clubs, indicating frequent efforts rather than a game decided by a handful of chances.

Final Prediction

Palace’s slight edge in win probability, stronger recent xG in attack, and home advantage collectively tip the balance their way. The key factor to watch will be whether Newcastle’s leaky recent defence (1.828 xG conceded per game) can withstand Palace’s growing attacking threat, which could ultimately decide both the result and the goal tally.

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