Manchester United
Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Champions League 2026-27
#9 in the title oddsTop 24 counts every league-phase finish inside the knockout places, so the eight clubs that skip the play-off round are in it too. Top 8 is the separate direct route to the last 16. Points and finish are league-phase numbers, conditional on playing it.
10,000 simulated seasons · updated Sep 04, 2026.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #3 of 20 61.5 expected pts · currently 3 pts after 2 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #3 of 20 in Premier League 71 pts · 20W-11D-7L · GD +19
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Manchester United?
Chaos club 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Manchester United's results were 12.8% harder to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.
| Market | Manchester United | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 40.6% | 47.8% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 59.4% | 52.8% |
| Both teams to score | 78.1% | 53.5% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Premier League | #9 | 1480 | 1506 | 1506 |
| 2025-26 | Premier League | #3 | 1471 | 1647 | 1636 |
| 2024-25 | Premier League | #16 | 1518 | 1518 | 1416 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | #8 | 1518 | 1603 | 1548 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | #4 | 1471 | 1642 | 1622 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | #10 | 1523 | 1590 | 1495 |
| 2020-21 | Premier League | #3 | 1469 | 1712 | 1626 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | #3 | 1523 | 1646 | 1646 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | #8 | 1518 | 1683 | 1522 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | #4 | 1523 | 1710 | 1641 |
| 2016-17 | Premier League | #5 | 1533 | 1680 | 1628 |
| 2015-16 | Premier League | #5 | 1518 | 1620 | 1575 |
| 2014-15 | Premier League | #4 | 1471 | 1686 | 1600 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | vs Nottingham Forest | W Manchester United 61.7% · draw 19.4% | W ✓ |
| May 09, 2026 | at Sunderland | W Manchester United 54.4% · draw 21.4% | D ✗ |
| May 03, 2026 | vs Liverpool | W Manchester United 50.2% · draw 23.2% | W ✓ |
| Apr 27, 2026 | vs Brentford | W Manchester United 59.8% · draw 20.2% | W ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Chelsea | L Manchester United 29.8% · draw 24.5% | W ✗ |
| Apr 13, 2026 | vs Leeds | W Manchester United 69.5% · draw 16.0% | L ✗ |
| Mar 20, 2026 | at Bournemouth | L Manchester United 35.9% · draw 25.0% | D ✗ |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vs Aston Villa | W Manchester United 61.6% · draw 19.4% | W ✓ |
| Mar 04, 2026 | at Newcastle | L Manchester United 31.3% · draw 25.3% | L ✓ |
| Mar 01, 2026 | vs Crystal Palace | W Manchester United 52.1% · draw 23.0% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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