Manchester United

Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1636 · #3 Premier League Chaos club Updated May 18, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #3 of 20 62.0 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 12.3%
Champions League 49.5%
Europa League 16.5%
Relegation 1.3%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full Premier League simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Manchester United?

Chaos club 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Manchester United's results were 12.8% harder to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.

MarketManchester UnitedLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 40.6% 47.8%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 59.4% 52.8%
Both teams to score 78.1% 53.5%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 Premier League #3 1471 1647 1636
2024-25 Premier League #16 1518 1518 1416
2023-24 Premier League #8 1518 1603 1548
2022-23 Premier League #4 1471 1642 1622
2021-22 Premier League #10 1523 1590 1495
2020-21 Premier League #3 1469 1712 1626
2019-20 Premier League #3 1523 1646 1646
2018-19 Premier League #8 1518 1683 1522
2017-18 Premier League #4 1523 1710 1641
2016-17 Premier League #5 1533 1680 1628
2015-16 Premier League #5 1518 1620 1575
2014-15 Premier League #4 1471 1686 1600

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 17, 2026 vs Nottingham Forest W Manchester United 61.7% · draw 19.4% W ✓
May 09, 2026 at Sunderland W Manchester United 54.4% · draw 21.4% D ✗
May 03, 2026 vs Liverpool W Manchester United 50.2% · draw 23.2% W ✓
Apr 27, 2026 vs Brentford W Manchester United 59.8% · draw 20.2% W ✓
Apr 18, 2026 at Chelsea L Manchester United 29.8% · draw 24.5% W ✗
Apr 13, 2026 vs Leeds W Manchester United 69.5% · draw 16.0% L ✗
Mar 20, 2026 at Bournemouth L Manchester United 35.9% · draw 25.0% D ✗
Mar 15, 2026 vs Aston Villa W Manchester United 61.6% · draw 19.4% W ✓
Mar 04, 2026 at Newcastle L Manchester United 31.3% · draw 25.3% L ✓
Mar 01, 2026 vs Crystal Palace W Manchester United 52.1% · draw 23.0% W ✓

Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0

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Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/manchester-united">Premier League title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)

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