Crystal Palace

Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1475 · #14 Premier League 2W-1D-3L · 7 pts On script Updated Oct 12, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #14 of 20 45.4 expected pts · currently 7 pts after 6 matches

League title 0.0%
Champions League places 0.9%
Europa League 3.7%
Relegation 15.5%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Premier League simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Crystal Palace?

On script 2025-26 · 28 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Crystal Palace's results were 12.6% easier to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.

MarketCrystal PalaceLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 50.0% 50.5%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 46.4% 52.7%
Both teams to score 53.6% 52.7%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Premier League #14 1480 1480 1475
2025-26 Premier League #15 1502 1574 1444
2024-25 Premier League #7 1482 1570 1570
2023-24 Premier League #5 1529 1570 1570
2022-23 Premier League #11 1467 1510 1474
2021-22 Premier League #8 1478 1554 1519
2020-21 Premier League #15 1518 1549 1412
2019-20 Premier League #17 1498 1546 1394
2018-19 Premier League #4 1533 1555 1555
2017-18 Premier League #7 1466 1525 1525
2016-17 Premier League #12 1471 1530 1468
2015-16 Premier League #18 1533 1556 1395
2014-15 Premier League #9 1482 1558 1512
2012-13 Championship #14 1406 1631 1498
2011-12 Championship #19 1415 1540 1407
2010-11 Championship #18 1492 1492 1421
2009-10 Championship #18 1453 1579 1456
2008-09 Championship #19 1584 1613 1445
2007-08 Championship #2 1583 1646 1613
2006-07 Championship #7 1574 1605 1562
2005-06 Championship #6 1471 1627 1568

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 11, 2026 vs Nottingham Forest L Crystal Palace 33.5% · draw 26.8% W ✗

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