Premier League 2025-2026: Everton vs Man United Prediction - 23 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Everton

Home Team
32%
VS

Man United

Away Team
45%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Shots: 25.1

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 27 17 7 3 52 20 32 58
2 Man City 26 16 5 5 54 24 30 53
3 Aston Villa 26 15 5 6 37 27 10 50
4 Man United 26 12 9 5 47 37 10 45
5 Chelsea 26 12 8 6 47 30 17 44
6 Liverpool 26 12 6 8 41 35 6 42
7 Brentford 26 12 4 10 40 35 5 40
8 Everton 26 10 7 9 29 30 -1 37
9 Bournemouth 26 9 10 7 43 45 -2 37
10 Newcastle 26 10 6 10 37 37 0 36
11 Sunderland 26 9 9 8 27 30 -3 36
12 Fulham 26 10 4 12 35 40 -5 34
13 Crystal Palace 26 8 8 10 28 32 -4 32
14 Brighton 26 7 10 9 34 34 0 31
15 Leeds 26 7 9 10 36 45 -9 30
16 Tottenham 26 7 8 11 36 37 -1 29
17 Nott'm Forest 26 7 6 13 25 38 -13 27
18 West Ham 26 6 6 14 32 49 -17 24
19 Burnley 26 4 6 16 28 51 -23 18
20 Wolves 27 1 7 19 18 50 -32 10

Recent Trends

Everton L W D D W

  • Last Match: L vs Bournemouth (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Leeds (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 0)

Man United D W W W W

  • Last Match: D vs West Ham (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Arsenal (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Man City (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Everton

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.21
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.74
# Clean Sheets: 1

Man United

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.43
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.18
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Man United are slight favourites to take all three points, with a 45.0% probability of an away win compared to Everton’s 32.0% chance at Goodison and a 23.0% likelihood of a draw. United come into this as a top‑four side in 4th place on 45 points, while Everton sit 8th on 37 points and pushing for the European spots. The model leans towards a tight game with an under 2.5 goals prediction, despite United being forecast to edge it.

Match Analysis

Everton’s last three matches have been solid if unspectacular: a home defeat to Bournemouth (1-2), a strong away win at Fulham (2-1), and a disciplined draw at Brighton (1-1). That sequence (W-D-L) shows they remain competitive against mid-table rivals, but they’ve conceded in all three, underlining defensive vulnerability. Their recent averages back that up: 1.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game in the last five, with xG at 1.214 for and 1.74 against, suggesting they often allow slightly better chances than they create. United arrive in better recent form with two wins and a draw in their last three: a 3-2 home thriller against Fulham, a controlled 2-0 victory over Tottenham, and a 1-1 draw away at struggling West Ham. Their attack has been more productive than Everton’s, averaging 1.6 goals scored over the last five games, but they also concede 1.6 per match. Interestingly, their defensive xG allowed (1.178) is better than their actual goals conceded, hinting that individual lapses rather than systemic collapse are costing them at times, while 1.43 xG going forward shows they consistently carve out enough opportunities.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Everton
Goals in last 5 matches
Man United
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points to under 2.5 with a 51.0% implied probability (given a 49.0% chance of over 2.5 goals), which is slightly at odds with the recent scorelines but in line with the expected tightness of this clash. From a simple goals lens, 2 of Everton’s last 3 matches went over 2.5 goals, while 2 of United’s last 3 also finished above that line, which would normally lean towards an over 2.5 prediction. However, the underlying numbers are more modest: Everton are at 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded per game (xG 1.214 for, 1.74 against), and United sit on 1.6 scored and 1.6 conceded (xG 1.43 for, 1.178 against), pointing to a game where chances might be there but defences could still keep the total just under.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Everton
Shots in last 5 matches
Man United
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots model forecasts 25.07 total efforts, which fits with two teams that average steady but not explosive attacking volumes. Everton’s recent shot counts (16, 16, 7) show they can rack up attempts, though they dropped off significantly at Brighton. United have had 23, 13, and 9 shots in their last three, matching their xG profile of 1.43 per game and supporting a shots prediction that both teams will test the goalkeepers regularly without turning this into a shooting gallery.

Final Prediction

United’s edge comes from slightly stronger attacking output, better league position, and a recent run of two wins in three, even if their defensive numbers remain a concern. Everton’s home support and physical approach keep this close, but United’s superior chance creation should tilt it their way. The key factor to watch will be how Everton’s back line copes with United’s varied attacking threats in what is likely to be a narrow, low‑scoring encounter.

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