Bournemouth
Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #11 of 20 47.9 expected pts · currently 3 pts after 6 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #6 of 20 in Premier League 57 pts · 13W-18D-7L · GD +4
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Bournemouth?
Chaos club 2025-26 · 26 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Bournemouth's results were 36.1% harder to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.
| Market | Bournemouth | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 26.9% | 50.5% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 46.2% | 52.7% |
| Both teams to score | 65.4% | 52.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Premier League | #17 | 1482 | 1485 | 1441 |
| 2025-26 | Premier League | #4 | 1480 | 1618 | 1618 |
| 2024-25 | Premier League | #12 | 1502 | 1644 | 1513 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | #12 | 1498 | 1558 | 1466 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | #18 | 1520 | 1520 | 1388 |
| 2021-22 | Championship | #1 | 1548 | 1704 | 1649 |
| 2020-21 | Championship | #7 | 1659 | 1684 | 1561 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | #19 | 1498 | 1534 | 1393 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | #16 | 1520 | 1570 | 1421 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | #9 | 1482 | 1537 | 1485 |
| 2016-17 | Premier League | #9 | 1467 | 1512 | 1477 |
| 2015-16 | Premier League | #17 | 1471 | 1522 | 1407 |
| 2014-15 | Championship | #1 | 1559 | 1688 | 1688 |
| 2013-14 | Championship | #11 | 1520 | 1595 | 1540 |
| 2012-13 | League One | #1 | 1485 | 1660 | 1619 |
| 2011-12 | League One | #13 | 1486 | 1570 | 1477 |
| 2010-11 | League One | #11 | 1540 | 1639 | 1485 |
| 2009-10 | League Two | #4 | 1580 | 1640 | 1563 |
| 2008-09 | League Two | #4 | 1501 | 1562 | 1555 |
| 2007-08 | League One | #6 | 1451 | 1571 | 1571 |
| 2006-07 | League One | #17 | 1424 | 1526 | 1462 |
| 2005-06 | League One | #19 | 1499 | 1552 | 1454 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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