Bournemouth
Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #4 of 20 59.9 expected pts · pre-season forecast
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #6 of 20 in Premier League 57 pts · 13W–18D–7L · GD +4
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Bournemouth?
Chaos club 2025-26 · 31 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Bournemouth's results were 28.8% harder to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.
| Market | Bournemouth | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 25.8% | 47.8% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 45.2% | 52.8% |
| Both teams to score | 67.7% | 53.5% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Premier League | #4 | 1480 | 1618 | 1618 |
| 2024-25 | Premier League | #12 | 1502 | 1644 | 1513 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | #12 | 1498 | 1558 | 1466 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | #18 | 1520 | 1520 | 1388 |
| 2021-22 | Championship | #1 | 1548 | 1704 | 1649 |
| 2020-21 | Championship | #7 | 1659 | 1684 | 1561 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | #19 | 1498 | 1534 | 1393 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | #16 | 1520 | 1570 | 1421 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | #9 | 1482 | 1537 | 1485 |
| 2016-17 | Premier League | #9 | 1467 | 1512 | 1477 |
| 2015-16 | Premier League | #17 | 1471 | 1522 | 1407 |
| 2014-15 | Championship | #1 | 1559 | 1688 | 1688 |
| 2013-14 | Championship | #11 | 1520 | 1595 | 1540 |
| 2012-13 | League One | #1 | 1485 | 1660 | 1619 |
| 2011-12 | League One | #13 | 1486 | 1570 | 1477 |
| 2010-11 | League One | #11 | 1540 | 1639 | 1485 |
| 2009-10 | League Two | #4 | 1580 | 1640 | 1563 |
| 2008-09 | League Two | #4 | 1501 | 1562 | 1555 |
| 2007-08 | League One | #6 | 1451 | 1571 | 1571 |
| 2006-07 | League One | #17 | 1424 | 1526 | 1462 |
| 2005-06 | League One | #19 | 1499 | 1552 | 1454 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 09, 2026 | at Fulham | L Bournemouth 29.8% · draw 25.4% | W ✗ |
| May 03, 2026 | vs Crystal Palace | W Bournemouth 58.0% · draw 20.9% | W ✓ |
| Apr 22, 2026 | vs Leeds | W Bournemouth 53.1% · draw 22.9% | D ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Newcastle | L Bournemouth 23.5% · draw 22.5% | W ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Arsenal | L Bournemouth 12.5% · draw 14.3% | W ✗ |
| Mar 20, 2026 | vs Manchester United | W Bournemouth 39.1% · draw 25.0% | D ✗ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at Burnley | W Bournemouth 46.9% · draw 24.1% | D ✗ |
| Mar 03, 2026 | vs Brentford | W Bournemouth 59.0% · draw 20.5% | D ✗ |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vs Sunderland | W Bournemouth 68.8% · draw 16.3% | D ✗ |
| Feb 21, 2026 | at West Ham | W Bournemouth 39.1% · draw 25.5% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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