Fulham

Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1467 · #13 Premier League On script Updated May 18, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #12 of 20 48.8 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 1.0%
Champions League 8.8%
Europa League 8.6%
Relegation 17.0%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full Premier League simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Fulham?

On script 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Fulham's results were 26.6% easier to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.

MarketFulhamLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 62.5% 47.8%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 53.1% 52.8%
Both teams to score 46.9% 53.5%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 Premier League #13 1502 1532 1467
2024-25 Premier League #13 1482 1572 1494
2023-24 Premier League #11 1529 1529 1489
2022-23 Premier League #10 1498 1567 1483
2021-22 Championship #5 1594 1690 1582
2020-21 Premier League #20 1466 1466 1331
2019-20 Championship #2 1640 1672 1628
2018-19 Premier League #18 1467 1477 1356
2017-18 Championship #1 1633 1774 1726
2016-17 Championship #1 1492 1673 1673
2015-16 Championship #20 1481 1525 1441
2014-15 Championship #16 1485 1536 1471

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 17, 2026 at Wolves W Fulham 44.2% · draw 24.9% D ✗
May 09, 2026 vs Bournemouth W Fulham 44.8% · draw 25.4% L ✗
May 02, 2026 at Arsenal L Fulham 13.2% · draw 14.8% L ✓
Apr 25, 2026 vs Aston Villa W Fulham 41.8% · draw 25.0% W ✓
Apr 18, 2026 at Brentford L Fulham 28.6% · draw 25.5% D ✗
Apr 11, 2026 at Liverpool L Fulham 15.1% · draw 16.4% L ✓
Mar 21, 2026 vs Burnley W Fulham 72.7% · draw 14.5% W ✓
Mar 15, 2026 at Nottingham Forest L Fulham 27.9% · draw 24.5% D ✗
Mar 04, 2026 vs West Ham W Fulham 68.4% · draw 16.5% L ✗
Mar 01, 2026 vs Tottenham W Fulham 55.0% · draw 22.1% W ✓

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