Everton
Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #8 of 20 55.1 expected pts · currently 10 pts after 6 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #13 of 20 in Premier League 49 pts · 13W-10D-15L · GD -3
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Everton?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 28 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Everton's results were 7.0% harder to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.
| Market | Everton | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 42.9% | 50.5% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 71.4% | 52.7% |
| Both teams to score | 57.1% | 52.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Premier League | #5 | 1520 | 1536 | 1536 |
| 2025-26 | Premier League | #14 | 1482 | 1550 | 1463 |
| 2024-25 | Premier League | #8 | 1466 | 1567 | 1567 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | #10 | 1471 | 1557 | 1498 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | #15 | 1471 | 1505 | 1431 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | #14 | 1520 | 1569 | 1442 |
| 2020-21 | Premier League | #12 | 1529 | 1587 | 1486 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | #12 | 1502 | 1542 | 1474 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | #6 | 1502 | 1552 | 1552 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | #8 | 1518 | 1525 | 1491 |
| 2016-17 | Premier League | #7 | 1498 | 1604 | 1535 |
| 2015-16 | Premier League | #14 | 1498 | 1550 | 1448 |
| 2014-15 | Premier League | #14 | 1502 | 1548 | 1473 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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