Everton

Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1463 · #14 Premier League In line Updated May 18, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #10 of 20 51.6 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 1.8%
Champions League 14.4%
Europa League 11.0%
Relegation 10.7%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full Premier League simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Everton?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Everton's results were 6.9% harder to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.

MarketEvertonLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 37.5% 47.8%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 65.6% 52.8%
Both teams to score 59.4% 53.5%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 Premier League #14 1482 1550 1463
2024-25 Premier League #8 1466 1567 1567
2023-24 Premier League #10 1471 1557 1498
2022-23 Premier League #15 1471 1505 1431
2021-22 Premier League #14 1520 1569 1442
2020-21 Premier League #12 1529 1587 1486
2019-20 Premier League #12 1502 1542 1474
2018-19 Premier League #6 1502 1552 1552
2017-18 Premier League #8 1518 1525 1491
2016-17 Premier League #7 1498 1604 1535
2015-16 Premier League #14 1498 1550 1448
2014-15 Premier League #14 1502 1548 1473

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 17, 2026 vs Sunderland W Everton 53.7% · draw 22.6% L ✗
May 10, 2026 at Crystal Palace L Everton 23.0% · draw 22.2% D ✗
May 04, 2026 vs Manchester City L Everton 17.5% · draw 16.9% D ✗
Apr 25, 2026 at West Ham L Everton 21.8% · draw 21.4% L ✓
Apr 19, 2026 vs Liverpool L Everton 26.7% · draw 22.8% L ✓
Apr 11, 2026 at Brentford L Everton 24.0% · draw 22.8% D ✗
Mar 21, 2026 vs Chelsea L Everton 25.3% · draw 22.0% W ✗
Mar 14, 2026 at Arsenal L Everton 12.5% · draw 14.3% L ✓
Mar 03, 2026 vs Burnley W Everton 73.1% · draw 14.3% W ✓
Feb 28, 2026 at Newcastle L Everton 25.6% · draw 23.7% W ✗

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