Premier League 2025-2026: Leeds vs Wolves Prediction - 18 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Leeds

Home Team
66%
VS

Wolves

Away Team
16%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 25.7

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 32 21 7 4 62 24 38 70
2 Man City 31 19 7 5 63 28 35 64
3 Man United 32 15 10 7 57 45 12 55
4 Aston Villa 32 16 7 9 43 38 5 55
5 Liverpool 32 15 7 10 52 42 10 52
6 Chelsea 32 13 9 10 53 41 12 48
7 Brentford 32 13 8 11 48 44 4 47
8 Everton 32 13 8 11 39 37 2 47
9 Brighton 32 12 10 10 43 37 6 46
10 Sunderland 32 12 10 10 33 36 -3 46
11 Bournemouth 32 10 15 7 48 49 -1 45
12 Fulham 32 13 5 14 43 46 -3 44
13 Crystal Palace 31 11 9 11 35 36 -1 42
14 Newcastle 32 12 6 14 45 47 -2 42
15 Leeds 32 8 12 12 39 49 -10 36
16 Nott'm Forest 32 8 9 15 32 44 -12 33
17 West Ham 32 8 8 16 40 57 -17 32
18 Tottenham 32 7 9 16 40 51 -11 30
19 Burnley 32 4 8 20 33 63 -30 20
20 Wolves 32 3 8 21 24 58 -34 17

Recent Trends

Leeds W D D L L

  • Last Match: W vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Sunderland (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 0 - 1)

Wolves L D W W L

  • Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Liverpool (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Aston Villa (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Leeds

xG (avg) 1.25
xGA (avg) 1.76
Clean Sheets 2

Wolves

xG (avg) 1.00
xGA (avg) 2.43
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Leeds are favoured to take all three points at Elland Road, with a 66.0% probability of a home win against a Wolves side rooted to the bottom in 20th place on 17 points. Wolves have just a 16.0% chance of victory, with the draw rated at 17.0%. The model leans towards an open contest, with an over 2.5 prediction at 55.0% in a game where 15th‑placed Leeds will be desperate to edge further clear of the relegation battle.

Match Analysis

Leeds come into this on a three‑match unbeaten run, built more on grit than flair. A superb 2-1 away win at Manchester United was followed by back‑to‑back goalless draws against Brentford and Crystal Palace, showing improved defensive resilience but ongoing struggles in front of goal. Across their last five games, Leeds have scored only 0.6 goals per match and conceded 1.4, yet their average xG of 1.25 going forward suggests they are creating more than the raw goal numbers show. Two clean sheets in those five underline a tightening back line. Wolves, 20th with just three wins all season, remain fragile. The 2-1 home victory over Liverpool was a major high, but it sits uncomfortably alongside a 4-0 hammering at West Ham and a 2-2 draw at Brentford, both away from home. Over their last five, they’re averaging just 0.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, with only one clean sheet. Their xG of 1.0 for and a worrying 2.428 against points to a side consistently second best in the key areas, particularly defensively – a major concern heading into a hostile Elland Road.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Leeds
Goals in last 5 matches
Wolves
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction edges it at 55.0%, but the recent scorelines add a note of caution. Two of Leeds’ last three league games (0-0 vs Brentford, 0-0 vs Crystal Palace, 2-1 vs Man United) have gone under 2.5, with only the Old Trafford win clearing the line. Wolves have seen two of their last three matches go over 2.5 (4-0 loss at West Ham, 2-2 at Brentford, 2-1 win vs Liverpool), reflecting their leaky defence. The combination of Leeds’ underlying xG of 1.25 for and 1.762 against, plus Wolves’ 1.0 for and 2.428 against, supports a slight lean towards goals rather than an under 2.5 outcome.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Leeds
Corners in last 5 matches
Wolves
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.71, which fits with recent patterns for both sides. Leeds’ last three matches have produced 15, 8 and 11 corners respectively, while Wolves’ games have seen 7, 6 and 13 corners. Leeds tend to attack in bursts and force set‑pieces – they drew 6-2 on corners against Brentford – whereas Wolves are often pushed back and concede plenty of territory. That dynamic backs a corners prediction close to the 9–10 mark, with Leeds likely to generate the bulk of the pressure.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Leeds
Shots in last 5 matches
Wolves
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 25.67 suggests a lively afternoon in both penalty areas. Leeds’ last three outings have featured 35, 22 and 30 total shots, while Wolves’ have had 32, 23 and 23, all pointing to matches with regular efforts on goal. Given Leeds’ xG of 1.25 and Wolves’ 1.0 going forward, combined with both sides allowing over 1.7 xG against, a shots prediction around 25–26 attempts overall looks realistic, even if finishing quality has lagged behind chance creation.

Final Prediction

Leeds have the edge thanks to home advantage, a sturdier recent defensive record, and stronger underlying numbers than a Wolves side currently conceding far too many chances. If they can translate their xG into actual goals, the home win projection looks justified. A key factor to watch will be how Wolves cope with Leeds’ intensity and the volume of shots and set‑pieces that pressure is likely to produce.

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