Brentford
Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #8 of 20 53.1 expected pts · pre-season forecast
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #9 of 20 in Premier League 53 pts · 14W–11D–13L · GD +3
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Brentford?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Brentford's results were 1.0% easier to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.
| Market | Brentford | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 46.9% | 47.8% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 43.8% | 52.8% |
| Both teams to score | 46.9% | 53.5% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Premier League | #8 | 1480 | 1562 | 1515 |
| 2024-25 | Premier League | #10 | 1518 | 1581 | 1542 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | #15 | 1498 | 1535 | 1434 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | #7 | 1502 | 1599 | 1599 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | #12 | 1520 | 1554 | 1478 |
| 2020-21 | Championship | #2 | 1560 | 1725 | 1681 |
| 2019-20 | Championship | #3 | 1504 | 1702 | 1621 |
| 2018-19 | Championship | #7 | 1550 | 1576 | 1546 |
| 2017-18 | Championship | #8 | 1503 | 1602 | 1554 |
| 2016-17 | Championship | #9 | 1515 | 1578 | 1537 |
| 2015-16 | Championship | #7 | 1553 | 1569 | 1550 |
| 2014-15 | Championship | #6 | 1498 | 1619 | 1570 |
| 2013-14 | League One | #3 | 1548 | 1710 | 1616 |
| 2012-13 | League One | #3 | 1530 | 1668 | 1563 |
| 2011-12 | League One | #8 | 1532 | 1563 | 1537 |
| 2010-11 | League One | #10 | 1505 | 1607 | 1512 |
| 2009-10 | League One | #9 | 1402 | 1561 | 1534 |
| 2008-09 | League Two | #1 | 1430 | 1637 | 1615 |
| 2007-08 | League Two | #17 | 1495 | 1552 | 1428 |
| 2006-07 | League One | #24 | 1560 | 1596 | 1324 |
| 2005-06 | League One | #7 | 1520 | 1628 | 1560 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | vs Crystal Palace | W Brentford 57.6% · draw 21.1% | D ✗ |
| May 09, 2026 | at Manchester City | L Brentford 10.4% · draw 12.4% | L ✓ |
| May 02, 2026 | vs West Ham | W Brentford 50.7% · draw 23.8% | W ✓ |
| Apr 27, 2026 | at Manchester United | L Brentford 20.0% · draw 20.2% | L ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Fulham | W Brentford 45.9% · draw 25.5% | D ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Everton | W Brentford 53.2% · draw 22.8% | D ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Leeds | L Brentford 32.5% · draw 24.7% | D ✗ |
| Mar 16, 2026 | vs Wolves | W Brentford 66.8% · draw 17.2% | D ✗ |
| Mar 03, 2026 | at Bournemouth | L Brentford 20.5% · draw 20.5% | D ✗ |
| Feb 28, 2026 | at Burnley | W Brentford 40.0% · draw 26.0% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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