Premier League 2025-2026: Nott'm Forest vs Burnley Prediction - 19 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Nott'm Forest

Home Team
66%
VS

Burnley

Away Team
16%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 10.2
Expected Shots: 27.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 32 21 7 4 62 24 38 70
2 Man City 31 19 7 5 63 28 35 64
3 Man United 32 15 10 7 57 45 12 55
4 Aston Villa 32 16 7 9 43 38 5 55
5 Liverpool 32 15 7 10 52 42 10 52
6 Chelsea 32 13 9 10 53 41 12 48
7 Brentford 32 13 8 11 48 44 4 47
8 Everton 32 13 8 11 39 37 2 47
9 Brighton 32 12 10 10 43 37 6 46
10 Sunderland 32 12 10 10 33 36 -3 46
11 Bournemouth 32 10 15 7 48 49 -1 45
12 Fulham 32 13 5 14 43 46 -3 44
13 Crystal Palace 31 11 9 11 35 36 -1 42
14 Newcastle 32 12 6 14 45 47 -2 42
15 Leeds 32 8 12 12 39 49 -10 36
16 Nott'm Forest 32 8 9 15 32 44 -12 33
17 West Ham 32 8 8 16 40 57 -17 32
18 Tottenham 32 7 9 16 40 51 -11 30
19 Burnley 32 4 8 20 33 63 -30 20
20 Wolves 32 3 8 21 24 58 -34 17

Recent Trends

Nott'm Forest D W D D L

  • Last Match: D vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Fulham (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Man City (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 2)

Burnley L L D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Everton (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Brentford (Goals: 3 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Nott'm Forest

xG (avg) 1.46
xGA (avg) 1.35
Clean Sheets 2

Burnley

xG (avg) 0.90
xGA (avg) 2.24
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Nott'm Forest are favoured to take all three points at home, with a 66.0% probability of a home win against a Burnley side given just a 16.0% chance, and a 17.0% chance of a draw. Forest sit 16th on 33 points, while Burnley are deep in trouble in 19th with 20 points and a -30 goal difference. The model leans towards a tight game, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 51.0% and a low‑scoring Forest victory as the most likely outcome.

Match Analysis

Forest come into this one on a three‑match unbeaten run: draws at home to Aston Villa (1-1) and Fulham (0-0) either side of a statement 3-0 win away at Tottenham. That recent run has steadied them in the table, but the broader numbers show a more conservative side: just 0.4 goals scored on average in their last five matches, against 0.6 conceded, with xG of 1.456 for and 1.35 against suggesting they are creating slightly more than they’re finishing and defending fairly solidly. Two clean sheets in those five underline a tightening up at the back. Burnley, by contrast, look fragile. They’ve taken just one point from their last three – a 0-0 home draw with Bournemouth flanked by a 1-3 defeat at Fulham and a 0-2 loss to Brighton. Defensively they’ve been wide open over a longer stretch: 2.2 goals conceded on average in their last five games from 2.236 expected goals against, while only scoring 1.0 per match from 0.904 xG. That paints the picture of a team being consistently out‑created and relying on half‑chances. Away from home and under pressure in the table, they face a Forest side that has recently found a better balance between risk and security.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Nott'm Forest
Goals in last 5 matches
Burnley
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans very slightly towards under 2.5, with a 49.0% probability of over 2.5 goals and therefore a narrow edge for the under 2.5 prediction. Two of Forest’s last three league matches have finished under 2.5 goals (1-1 vs Villa, 0-0 vs Fulham), with only the 3-0 at Tottenham going over. Burnley have had a more mixed pattern – one over (1-3 at Fulham) and two unders (0-2 vs Brighton, 0-0 vs Bournemouth) – but their recent averages of 1.0 scored and 2.2 conceded, alongside relatively modest xG at both ends, support the idea of a cautious, scrappy contest rather than a shoot‑out.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Nott'm Forest
Corners in last 5 matches
Burnley
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 10.19, pointing towards a typically busy Premier League set‑piece count. Forest’s last three games have produced 10, 16 and 9 corners respectively, while Burnley’s have seen 10, 12 and 13, which fits well with a double‑figure corners prediction. Forest can generate pressure at home and Burnley, often forced back and defending deep, tend to concede plenty of wide attacks – both factors which should feed into a healthy number of predicted corners.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Nott'm Forest
Shots in last 5 matches
Burnley
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 27.06, suggesting a reasonably open game in terms of attempts even if the finishing may not match. Forest’s last three outings have featured 27, 22 and 16 total shots, while Burnley’s have seen 23, 31 and 37, so a shots prediction around the high‑20s looks realistic. Given Forest’s xG of 1.456 per match and Burnley’s 0.904, both sides should be able to generate chances, but the quality rather than the volume may ultimately decide the outcome.

Final Prediction

Forest’s stronger defensive record, improved recent form and clear home advantage explain why they are firm favourites here. Burnley’s leaky back line and tendency to concede high xG opportunities leave them vulnerable against a Forest side that has tightened up and shown they can manage games. The key factor to watch will be whether Burnley can withstand Forest’s spells of pressure without giving up the early goal that could tilt this relegation‑shaped contest decisively in the hosts’ favour.

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