Segunda División 2026-2027: Albacete vs Eibar Prediction - 3 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Albacete

Home Team
33%
VS

Eibar

Away Team
38%
Draw: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 25.6
Expected Spread: -0.1

Why the Model Leans Eibar

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Albacete
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +10.5 Eibar
Results & dominance +2.5 Eibar
Defense +1.5 Eibar
Attack +0.7 Eibar

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 54% for Eibar. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Eibar defense +1.7 Over
Albacete defense +1.1 Over
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +0.6 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 50% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Castellon 7 6 1 0 14 2 12 19
2 Eibar 7 6 0 1 15 6 9 18
3 Almeria 7 5 0 2 11 4 7 15
4 Burgos 7 4 2 1 11 7 4 14
5 Girona 7 4 1 2 14 8 6 13
6 Mallorca 7 4 1 2 8 3 5 13
7 Sabadell 7 3 3 1 8 6 2 12
8 Oviedo 7 3 2 2 7 4 3 11
9 Tenerife 7 3 2 2 8 9 -1 11
10 Leganes 7 3 2 2 6 7 -1 11
11 Las Palmas 7 3 1 3 10 11 -1 10
12 Sp Gijon 7 3 1 3 5 6 -1 10
13 Granada 7 2 2 3 10 11 -1 8
14 Sociedad B 7 2 2 3 9 10 -1 8
15 Celta B 7 2 2 3 8 11 -3 8
16 Valladolid 7 2 2 3 6 9 -3 8
17 Andorra 7 2 0 5 12 15 -3 6
18 Cordoba 7 2 0 5 10 16 -6 6
19 Eldense 7 1 2 4 4 9 -5 5
20 Cadiz 7 0 4 3 7 10 -3 4
21 Ceuta 7 1 1 5 6 17 -11 4
22 Albacete 7 0 1 6 4 12 -8 1

Recent Trends

Albacete L L D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Girona (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Cordoba (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Granada (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Castellon (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Oviedo (Goals: 0 - 1)

Eibar W W W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Las Palmas (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Eldense (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Celta B (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Granada (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Andorra (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Albacete

Goals scored (avg, home) 0.67
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.67
Clean Sheets 0

Eibar

Goals scored (avg, away) 2.33
Goals conceded (avg, away) 0.33
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Albacete a 33% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 29% and Eibar at 38%. This is a tight call, with Eibar only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 50% and sees both teams scoring in 55% of cases.

Match Analysis

Albacete arrive with 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLDLL from most recent), scoring 2 and conceding 8 with 0 clean sheets. Eibar arrive with 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (WWWWW from most recent), scoring 13 and conceding 3 with 3 clean sheets. In the table Albacete sit 22nd with 1 point from 7 games and a goal difference of -8, while Eibar are 2nd with 18 points and a goal difference of +9. That puts Eibar 17 points clear of their opponent. Albacete average 0.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over their last five home games, while Eibar average 2.3 scored and 0.3 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Albacete), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (10.5 points toward Eibar), results & dominance (2.5 points toward Eibar). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Albacete
Goals in last 5 matches
Eibar
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 50% and Over 2.5 at 50%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Albacete matches produced 2.0 goals on average over their last 5, Eibar matches 3.2. Both teams to score comes in at 55%, no goal for at least one side at 45%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Eibar defense pulls toward Over by 1.7 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Albacete
Corners in last 5 matches
Eibar
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.4 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 53%, which leaves 47% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Albacete
Shots in last 5 matches
Eibar
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.6 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 50%, which leaves 50% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Albacete wins by X goals. Negative = Eibar wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Albacete vs Eibar with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Albacete vs Eibar
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.1 goals in favour of Eibar. The spread model gives 21% to a Albacete win by two goals or more and 46% to any Eibar win. An Eibar win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Eibar win (38%), Over 2.5 (50%), Goal (55%). Expected totals: 9.4 corners and 25.6 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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