Albacete
Segunda División · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #12 of 22 in Segunda División 59 pts · 16W–11D–15L · GD +1
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Segunda División simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Albacete?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 37 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Albacete's results were 8.3% harder to call than the Segunda División average. How this is measured.
| Market | Albacete | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 37.8% | 50.1% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 54.0% | 58.0% |
| Both teams to score | 48.6% | 56.0% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Segunda División | #8 | 1502 | 1584 | 1561 |
| 2024-25 | Segunda División | #9 | 1570 | 1579 | 1528 |
| 2023-24 | Segunda División | #7 | 1564 | 1567 | 1543 |
| 2022-23 | Segunda División | #5 | 1456 | 1581 | 1581 |
| 2020-21 | Segunda División | #20 | 1491 | 1502 | 1405 |
| 2019-20 | Segunda División | #13 | 1514 | 1572 | 1518 |
| 2018-19 | Segunda División | #8 | 1458 | 1629 | 1546 |
| 2017-18 | Segunda División | #18 | 1502 | 1528 | 1449 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | at Ceuta | L Albacete 30.9% · draw 32.0% | L ✓ |
| May 24, 2026 | vs Sociedad B | W Albacete 39.9% · draw 29.9% | W ✓ |
| May 15, 2026 | at Cordoba | L Albacete 20.8% · draw 27.5% | W ✗ |
| May 09, 2026 | vs Cultural Leonesa | W Albacete 42.8% · draw 29.1% | W ✓ |
| May 01, 2026 | at Andorra | L Albacete 23.0% · draw 27.8% | W ✗ |
| Apr 24, 2026 | vs Eibar | W Albacete 35.3% · draw 31.3% | L ✗ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | vs Granada | W Albacete 35.5% · draw 31.9% | W ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Leganes | L Albacete 30.7% · draw 31.9% | L ✓ |
| Apr 04, 2026 | vs Burgos | W Albacete 37.6% · draw 31.4% | L ✗ |
| Mar 31, 2026 | at Mirandes | W Albacete 34.9% · draw 30.9% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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