Segunda División 2026-2027: Almeria vs Burgos Prediction - 3 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Almeria

Home Team
57%
VS

Burgos

Away Team
17%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 42%
Under 2.5: 58%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 9.1
Expected Shots: 24.5
Expected Spread: +0.6

Why the Model Leans Almeria

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Almeria
Defense +6.6 Almeria
Attack +5.9 Almeria
Results & dominance +1.7 Almeria

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 77% for Almeria. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Almeria attack & chance creation +3.6 Under
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Burgos attack & chance creation +2.2 Under
Form & results +1.8 Under
Burgos defense +1.7 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 58% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Castellon 7 6 1 0 14 2 12 19
2 Eibar 7 6 0 1 15 6 9 18
3 Almeria 7 5 0 2 11 4 7 15
4 Burgos 7 4 2 1 11 7 4 14
5 Girona 7 4 1 2 14 8 6 13
6 Mallorca 7 4 1 2 8 3 5 13
7 Sabadell 7 3 3 1 8 6 2 12
8 Oviedo 7 3 2 2 7 4 3 11
9 Tenerife 7 3 2 2 8 9 -1 11
10 Leganes 7 3 2 2 6 7 -1 11
11 Las Palmas 7 3 1 3 10 11 -1 10
12 Sp Gijon 7 3 1 3 5 6 -1 10
13 Granada 7 2 2 3 10 11 -1 8
14 Sociedad B 7 2 2 3 9 10 -1 8
15 Celta B 7 2 2 3 8 11 -3 8
16 Valladolid 7 2 2 3 6 9 -3 8
17 Andorra 7 2 0 5 12 15 -3 6
18 Cordoba 7 2 0 5 10 16 -6 6
19 Eldense 7 1 2 4 4 9 -5 5
20 Cadiz 7 0 4 3 7 10 -3 4
21 Ceuta 7 1 1 5 6 17 -11 4
22 Albacete 7 0 1 6 4 12 -8 1

Recent Trends

Almeria W W W W L

  • Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Celta B (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Cordoba (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Cadiz (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Sabadell (Goals: 0 - 1)

Burgos W W W D D

  • Last Match: W vs Eldense (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Las Palmas (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Ceuta (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Oviedo (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Sociedad B (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Almeria

Goals scored (avg, home) 2.67
Goals conceded (avg, home) 0.67
Clean Sheets 3

Burgos

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.67
Goals conceded (avg, away) 0.67
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Almeria a 57% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 26% and Burgos at 17%. Almeria are a clear favourite. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 58% and sees both teams scoring in 49% of cases.

Match Analysis

Almeria arrive with 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WWWWL from most recent), scoring 8 and conceding 3 with 3 clean sheets. Burgos arrive with 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (WWWDD from most recent), scoring 8 and conceding 4 with 2 clean sheets. In the table Almeria sit 3rd with 15 points from 7 games and a goal difference of +7, while Burgos are 4th with 14 points and a goal difference of +4. That puts Almeria 1 point clear of their opponent. Almeria average 2.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over their last five home games, while Burgos average 0.7 scored and 0.7 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Almeria), defense (6.6 points toward Almeria), attack (5.9 points toward Almeria). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Almeria
Goals in last 5 matches
Burgos
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 58% and Over 2.5 at 42%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Almeria matches produced 2.2 goals on average over their last 5, Burgos matches 2.4. Both teams to score comes in at 49%, no goal for at least one side at 51%. In the model's own attribution, Almeria attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 3.6 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Almeria
Corners in last 5 matches
Burgos
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.1 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 57%, which leaves 43% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Almeria
Shots in last 5 matches
Burgos
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 24.5 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 24. The chance of 24 shots or fewer is 51%, which leaves 49% for 25 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Almeria wins by X goals. Negative = Burgos wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Almeria vs Burgos with expected spread of +0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Almeria vs Burgos
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.6 goals in favour of Almeria. The spread model gives 31% to a Almeria win by two goals or more and 34% to any Burgos win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Almeria win (57%), Under 2.5 (58%), No Goal (51%). Expected totals: 9.1 corners and 24.5 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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