Almeria
Segunda División · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #3 of 22 in Segunda División 74 pts · 22W–8D–12L · GD +18
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Segunda División simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Almeria?
On script 2025-26 · 37 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Almeria's results were 11.0% easier to call than the Segunda División average. How this is measured.
| Market | Almeria | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 59.5% | 50.1% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 75.7% | 58.0% |
| Both teams to score | 70.3% | 56.0% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Segunda División | #9 | 1498 | 1624 | 1554 |
| 2024-25 | Segunda División | #5 | 1618 | 1684 | 1563 |
| 2023-24 | La Liga | #19 | 1467 | 1467 | 1370 |
| 2022-23 | La Liga | #14 | 1471 | 1492 | 1448 |
| 2021-22 | Segunda División | #3 | 1609 | 1707 | 1650 |
| 2020-21 | Segunda División | #5 | 1540 | 1654 | 1602 |
| 2019-20 | Segunda División | #15 | 1554 | 1637 | 1504 |
| 2018-19 | Segunda División | #10 | 1446 | 1585 | 1539 |
| 2017-18 | Segunda División | #17 | 1529 | 1529 | 1451 |
| 2014-15 | La Liga | #18 | 1498 | 1509 | 1358 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | vs Valladolid | W Almeria 58.7% · draw 23.2% | W ✓ |
| May 24, 2026 | at Sp Gijon | W Almeria 40.0% · draw 29.2% | L ✗ |
| May 16, 2026 | vs Las Palmas | W Almeria 45.6% · draw 27.7% | L ✗ |
| May 09, 2026 | at Burgos | W Almeria 36.0% · draw 30.4% | D ✗ |
| May 04, 2026 | vs Mirandes | W Almeria 70.9% · draw 17.6% | W ✓ |
| Apr 26, 2026 | at Granada | W Almeria 35.5% · draw 29.8% | W ✓ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | vs Malaga | W Almeria 44.5% · draw 28.0% | W ✓ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | at Santander | W Almeria 37.7% · draw 29.6% | L ✗ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | vs Leganes | W Almeria 59.3% · draw 22.9% | W ✓ |
| Apr 02, 2026 | at Castellon | L Almeria 28.4% · draw 29.0% | L ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Segunda División title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
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