Almeria

Segunda División · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1522 · #11 Segunda División 1W-0D-2L · 3 pts On script Updated Aug 31, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #12 of 22 57.3 expected pts · currently 3 pts after 3 matches

League title 2.7%
Promotion 10.7%
Automatic promotion 6.4%
Promotion playoffs 17.8%
Relegation 10.1%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Segunda División simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Almeria?

On script 2025-26 · 37 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Almeria's results were 11.0% easier to call than the Segunda División average. How this is measured.

MarketAlmeriaLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 59.5% 50.1%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 75.7% 58.0%
Both teams to score 70.3% 56.0%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Segunda División #11 1566 1566 1522
2025-26 Segunda División #9 1498 1624 1554
2024-25 Segunda División #5 1618 1684 1563
2023-24 La Liga #19 1467 1467 1370
2022-23 La Liga #14 1471 1492 1448
2021-22 Segunda División #3 1609 1707 1650
2020-21 Segunda División #5 1540 1654 1602
2019-20 Segunda División #15 1554 1637 1504
2018-19 Segunda División #10 1446 1585 1539
2017-18 Segunda División #17 1529 1529 1451
2014-15 La Liga #18 1498 1509 1358

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 31, 2026 vs Valladolid W Almeria 58.7% · draw 23.2% W ✓
May 24, 2026 at Sp Gijon W Almeria 40.0% · draw 29.2% L ✗
May 16, 2026 vs Las Palmas W Almeria 45.6% · draw 27.7% L ✗
May 09, 2026 at Burgos W Almeria 36.0% · draw 30.4% D ✗
May 04, 2026 vs Mirandes W Almeria 70.9% · draw 17.6% W ✓
Apr 26, 2026 at Granada W Almeria 35.5% · draw 29.8% W ✓
Apr 19, 2026 vs Malaga W Almeria 44.5% · draw 28.0% W ✓
Apr 12, 2026 at Santander W Almeria 37.7% · draw 29.6% L ✗
Apr 05, 2026 vs Leganes W Almeria 59.3% · draw 22.9% W ✓
Apr 02, 2026 at Castellon L Almeria 28.4% · draw 29.0% L ✓

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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