Segunda División 2026-2027: Almeria vs Leganes Prediction - 11 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Almeria

Home Team
74%
VS

Leganes

Away Team
9%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 43%
Under 2.5: 57%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 27.4
Expected Spread: +1.2

Why the Model Leans Almeria

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Almeria
Defense +9.2 Almeria
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +8.9 Almeria
Attack +5.2 Almeria
Results & dominance +3.8 Almeria

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 89% for Almeria. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Almeria attack & chance creation +2.5 Under
Leganes attack & chance creation +2.3 Under
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +2.0 Over
Form & results +1.2 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 57% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Eibar 8 7 0 1 18 7 11 21
2 Castellon 8 6 2 0 15 3 12 20
3 Almeria 8 6 0 2 13 5 8 18
4 Girona 8 4 2 2 14 8 6 14
5 Mallorca 8 4 2 2 8 3 5 14
6 Burgos 8 4 2 2 12 9 3 14
7 Sabadell 8 3 4 1 8 6 2 13
8 Sp Gijon 8 4 1 3 8 8 0 13
9 Granada 8 3 2 3 13 13 0 11
10 Oviedo 8 3 2 3 8 8 0 11
11 Las Palmas 8 3 2 3 12 13 -1 11
12 Tenerife 8 3 2 3 10 12 -2 11
13 Leganes 8 3 2 3 6 11 -5 11
14 Valladolid 8 2 3 3 8 11 -3 9
15 Cordoba 8 3 0 5 13 18 -5 9
16 Sociedad B 8 2 2 4 11 13 -2 8
17 Eldense 8 2 2 4 8 10 -2 8
18 Celta B 8 2 2 4 10 14 -4 8
19 Cadiz 8 1 4 3 11 10 1 7
20 Andorra 8 2 1 5 12 15 -3 7
21 Ceuta 8 1 2 5 7 18 -11 5
22 Albacete 8 0 1 7 5 15 -10 1

Recent Trends

Almeria W W W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Burgos (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Celta B (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Cordoba (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Cadiz (Goals: 3 - 2)

Leganes L L W L D

  • Last Match: L vs Cadiz (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Castellon (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Granada (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Tenerife (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Las Palmas (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Almeria

Goals scored (avg, home) 2.50
Goals conceded (avg, home) 0.75
Clean Sheets 3

Leganes

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.40
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.40
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Almeria a 74% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 17% and Leganes at 9%. Almeria are a clear favourite. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 57% and sees both teams scoring in 50% of cases.

Match Analysis

Almeria arrive with 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (WWWWW from most recent), scoring 10 and conceding 3 with 3 clean sheets. Leganes arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLWLD from most recent), scoring 3 and conceding 10 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Almeria sit 3rd with 18 points from 8 games and a goal difference of +8, while Leganes are 13th with 11 points and a goal difference of -5. That puts Almeria 7 points clear of their opponent. Almeria average 2.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over their last five home games, while Leganes average 0.4 scored and 1.4 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Almeria), defense (9.2 points toward Almeria), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (8.9 points toward Almeria). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Almeria
Goals in last 5 matches
Leganes
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 57% and Over 2.5 at 43%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Almeria matches produced 2.6 goals on average over their last 5, Leganes matches 2.6. Both teams to score comes in at 50%, no goal for at least one side at 50%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Almeria attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 2.5 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Almeria
Corners in last 5 matches
Leganes
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.5 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 52%, which leaves 48% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Almeria
Shots in last 5 matches
Leganes
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 27.4 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 27. The chance of 27 shots or fewer is 52%, which leaves 48% for 28 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Almeria wins by X goals. Negative = Leganes wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Almeria vs Leganes with expected spread of +1.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Almeria vs Leganes
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 1.2 goals in favour of Almeria. The spread model gives 37% to a Almeria win by two goals or more and 26% to any Leganes win. An Almeria win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Almeria win (74%), Under 2.5 (57%), Goal (50%). Expected totals: 9.5 corners and 27.4 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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