Leganes
Segunda División · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #16 of 22 in Segunda División 46 pts · 11W–13D–18L · GD -8
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Segunda División simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Leganes?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 37 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Leganes's results were 0.4% easier to call than the Segunda División average. How this is measured.
| Market | Leganes | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 40.5% | 50.1% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 54.0% | 58.0% |
| Both teams to score | 46.0% | 56.0% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Segunda División | #17 | 1502 | 1525 | 1407 |
| 2024-25 | La Liga | #13 | 1502 | 1521 | 1449 |
| 2023-24 | Segunda División | #3 | 1460 | 1639 | 1595 |
| 2022-23 | Segunda División | #14 | 1503 | 1576 | 1480 |
| 2021-22 | Segunda División | #8 | 1575 | 1584 | 1544 |
| 2020-21 | Segunda División | #3 | 1521 | 1639 | 1627 |
| 2019-20 | La Liga | #10 | 1471 | 1475 | 1475 |
| 2018-19 | La Liga | #15 | 1482 | 1542 | 1458 |
| 2017-18 | La Liga | #17 | 1518 | 1556 | 1420 |
| 2016-17 | La Liga | #14 | 1529 | 1529 | 1410 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | vs Mirandes | W Leganes 43.9% · draw 28.9% | W ✓ |
| May 24, 2026 | at Cadiz | W Leganes 36.2% · draw 30.9% | L ✗ |
| May 18, 2026 | vs Huesca | W Leganes 52.0% · draw 26.4% | D ✗ |
| May 10, 2026 | vs Santander | L Leganes 28.5% · draw 28.7% | L ✓ |
| May 01, 2026 | at La Coruna | L Leganes 15.2% · draw 22.6% | L ✓ |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vs Andorra | W Leganes 36.0% · draw 31.2% | L ✗ |
| Apr 17, 2026 | at Las Palmas | L Leganes 16.9% · draw 25.1% | L ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Albacete | W Leganes 37.4% · draw 31.9% | W ✓ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | at Almeria | L Leganes 17.8% · draw 22.9% | L ✓ |
| Apr 02, 2026 | vs Zaragoza | W Leganes 48.5% · draw 29.3% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Segunda División title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
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