Segunda División 2026-2027: Andorra vs Castellon Prediction - 11 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Andorra

Home Team
27%
VS

Castellon

Away Team
45%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 24.4
Expected Spread: -0.6

Why the Model Leans Castellon

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Andorra
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +10.7 Castellon
Results & dominance +5.0 Castellon
Attack +3.4 Castellon
Defense +3.1 Castellon

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 62% for Castellon. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Castellon attack & chance creation +2.4 Over
Andorra defense +1.6 Under
Form & results +1.1 Under
Andorra attack & chance creation +0.9 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Eibar 8 7 0 1 18 7 11 21
2 Castellon 8 6 2 0 15 3 12 20
3 Almeria 8 6 0 2 13 5 8 18
4 Girona 8 4 2 2 14 8 6 14
5 Mallorca 8 4 2 2 8 3 5 14
6 Burgos 8 4 2 2 12 9 3 14
7 Sabadell 8 3 4 1 8 6 2 13
8 Sp Gijon 8 4 1 3 8 8 0 13
9 Granada 8 3 2 3 13 13 0 11
10 Oviedo 8 3 2 3 8 8 0 11
11 Las Palmas 8 3 2 3 12 13 -1 11
12 Tenerife 8 3 2 3 10 12 -2 11
13 Leganes 8 3 2 3 6 11 -5 11
14 Valladolid 8 2 3 3 8 11 -3 9
15 Cordoba 8 3 0 5 13 18 -5 9
16 Sociedad B 8 2 2 4 11 13 -2 8
17 Eldense 8 2 2 4 8 10 -2 8
18 Celta B 8 2 2 4 10 14 -4 8
19 Cadiz 8 1 4 3 11 10 1 7
20 Andorra 8 2 1 5 12 15 -3 7
21 Ceuta 8 1 2 5 7 18 -11 5
22 Albacete 8 0 1 7 5 15 -10 1

Recent Trends

Andorra D W L L L

  • Last Match: D vs Sabadell (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Granada (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sp Gijon (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Sociedad B (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Valladolid (Goals: 0 - 1)

Castellon D W W W W

  • Last Match: D vs Ceuta (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Leganes (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Tenerife (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Girona (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Albacete (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Andorra

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.75
Goals conceded (avg, home) 2.00
Clean Sheets 1

Castellon

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.75
Goals conceded (avg, away) 0.50
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Andorra a 27% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 28% and Castellon at 45%. Castellon are the favourite, but the gap to the other outcomes is modest. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 51% and sees both teams scoring in 55% of cases.

Match Analysis

Andorra arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (DWLLL from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 9 with 1 clean sheet. Castellon arrive with 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (DWWWW from most recent), scoring 12 and conceding 2 with 3 clean sheets. In the table Andorra sit 20th with 7 points from 8 games and a goal difference of -3, while Castellon are 2nd with 20 points and a goal difference of +12. That puts Castellon 13 points clear of their opponent. Andorra average 1.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Castellon average 1.8 scored and 0.5 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Andorra), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (10.7 points toward Castellon), results & dominance (5.0 points toward Castellon). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Andorra
Goals in last 5 matches
Castellon
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 51% and Over 2.5 at 49%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Andorra matches produced 2.8 goals on average over their last 5, Castellon matches 2.8. Both teams to score comes in at 55%, no goal for at least one side at 45%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Castellon attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 2.4 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Andorra
Corners in last 5 matches
Castellon
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.8 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 49%, which leaves 51% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Andorra
Shots in last 5 matches
Castellon
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 24.4 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 24. The chance of 24 shots or fewer is 52%, which leaves 48% for 25 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Andorra wins by X goals. Negative = Castellon wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Andorra vs Castellon with expected spread of -0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Andorra vs Castellon
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.6 goals in favour of Castellon. The spread model gives 16% to a Andorra win by two goals or more and 54% to any Castellon win. A Castellon win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Castellon win (45%), Under 2.5 (51%), Goal (55%). Expected totals: 9.8 corners and 24.4 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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