Castellon
Segunda División · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #6 of 22 in Segunda División 72 pts · 20W–12D–10L · GD +19
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Segunda División simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Castellon?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 37 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Castellon's results were 3.3% easier to call than the Segunda División average. How this is measured.
| Market | Castellon | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 51.3% | 50.1% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 48.6% | 58.0% |
| Both teams to score | 46.0% | 56.0% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Segunda División | #6 | 1480 | 1647 | 1607 |
| 2024-25 | Segunda División | #15 | 1405 | 1524 | 1484 |
| 2020-21 | Segunda División | #22 | 1524 | 1525 | 1391 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | vs Eibar | W Castellon 59.3% · draw 25.0% | W ✓ |
| May 24, 2026 | at Huesca | W Castellon 52.8% · draw 24.5% | W ✓ |
| May 15, 2026 | vs Cadiz | W Castellon 81.5% · draw 12.0% | D ✗ |
| May 09, 2026 | at Ceuta | W Castellon 46.3% · draw 27.7% | D ✗ |
| May 02, 2026 | vs Cordoba | W Castellon 62.2% · draw 21.5% | L ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Malaga | W Castellon 38.8% · draw 30.2% | W ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Burgos | W Castellon 55.2% · draw 26.9% | W ✓ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | at Mirandes | W Castellon 49.7% · draw 25.9% | D ✗ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs Granada | W Castellon 60.8% · draw 23.7% | W ✓ |
| Apr 02, 2026 | vs Almeria | W Castellon 42.6% · draw 29.0% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Segunda División title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/castellon">Segunda División title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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