Segunda División 2026-2027: Andorra vs Sp Gijon Prediction - 19 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Andorra

Home Team
55%
VS

Sp Gijon

Away Team
19%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 43%
No Goal: 57%
Expected Corners: 8.4
Expected Shots: 24.7
Expected Spread: +0.5

Why the Model Leans Andorra

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Andorra
Attack +9.0 Andorra
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +4.9 Sp Gijon
Results & dominance +4.9 Andorra
Defense +2.4 Andorra

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 74% for Andorra. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Sp Gijon attack & chance creation +4.9 Under
Andorra attack & chance creation +4.1 Over
Andorra defense +3.7 Under
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +1.5 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 54% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Castellon 5 4 1 0 7 2 5 13
2 Eibar 5 4 0 1 10 3 7 12
3 Mallorca 5 3 1 1 7 2 5 10
4 Tenerife 5 3 1 1 7 3 4 10
5 Las Palmas 5 3 1 1 7 6 1 10
6 Almeria 5 3 0 2 8 4 4 9
7 Oviedo 5 2 2 1 4 1 3 8
8 Burgos 5 2 2 1 8 6 2 8
9 Sociedad B 5 2 2 1 8 6 2 8
10 Granada 5 2 2 1 6 5 1 8
11 Sabadell 5 2 2 1 4 4 0 8
12 Leganes 5 2 2 1 3 3 0 8
13 Girona 5 2 1 2 10 7 3 7
14 Celta B 5 2 1 2 7 8 -1 7
15 Sp Gijon 5 2 1 2 2 3 -1 7
16 Eldense 5 1 2 2 3 6 -3 5
17 Valladolid 5 1 1 3 2 7 -5 4
18 Andorra 5 1 0 4 8 10 -2 3
19 Cadiz 5 0 3 2 5 7 -2 3
20 Cordoba 5 1 0 4 7 12 -5 3
21 Albacete 5 0 1 4 3 8 -5 1
22 Celta 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23 Sociedad 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24 Ceuta 5 0 0 5 2 15 -13 0

Recent Trends

Andorra L L L L W

  • Last Match: L vs Sociedad B (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Valladolid (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Eibar (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Celta B (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Ceuta (Goals: 5 - 1)

Sp Gijon L L W W D

  • Last Match: L vs Eldense (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Girona (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Tenerife (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Burgos (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Sabadell (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Andorra

Goals scored (avg, home) 2.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.67
Clean Sheets 0

Sp Gijon

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 0.00
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Andorra a 55% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 26% and Sp Gijon at 19%. Andorra are a clear favourite. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 54% and sees both teams scoring in 43% of cases.

Match Analysis

Andorra arrive with 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLLLW from most recent), scoring 8 and conceding 10 with 0 clean sheets. Sp Gijon arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLWWD from most recent), scoring 2 and conceding 3 with 3 clean sheets. In the table Andorra sit 18th with 3 points from 5 games and a goal difference of -2, while Sp Gijon are 15th with 7 points and a goal difference of -1. That puts Sp Gijon 4 points clear of their opponent. Andorra average 2.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over their last five home games, while Sp Gijon average 1.0 scored and 0.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Andorra), attack (9.0 points toward Andorra), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (4.9 points toward Sp Gijon). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Andorra
Goals in last 5 matches
Sp Gijon
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 54% and Over 2.5 at 46%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Andorra matches produced 3.6 goals on average over their last 5, Sp Gijon matches 1.0. Both teams to score comes in at 43%, no goal for at least one side at 57%. In the model's own attribution, Sp Gijon attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 4.9 points and Andorra attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 4.1 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Andorra
Corners in last 5 matches
Sp Gijon
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 8.4 corners in total. The single most likely count is 8. The chance of 8 corners or fewer is 53%, which leaves 46% for 9 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Andorra
Shots in last 5 matches
Sp Gijon
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 24.7 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 24. The chance of 24 shots or fewer is 50%, which leaves 50% for 25 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Andorra wins by X goals. Negative = Sp Gijon wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Andorra vs Sp Gijon with expected spread of +0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Andorra vs Sp Gijon
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.5 goals in favour of Andorra. The spread model gives 29% to a Andorra win by two goals or more and 36% to any Sp Gijon win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Andorra win (55%), Under 2.5 (54%), No Goal (57%). Expected totals: 8.4 corners and 24.7 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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