Segunda División 2026-2027: Burgos vs Granada Prediction - 12 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Burgos

Home Team
40%
VS

Granada

Away Team
30%
Draw: 30%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 26.5
Expected Spread: +0.1

Why the Model Leans Burgos

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Burgos
Attack +4.4 Granada
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.6 Burgos
Results & dominance +2.2 Granada
Defense +1.9 Granada

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 57% for Burgos. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Burgos attack & chance creation +4.3 Under
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Burgos defense +2.3 Over
Granada attack & chance creation +2.2 Over
Form & results +1.0 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 54% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Eibar 8 7 0 1 18 7 11 21
2 Castellon 8 6 2 0 15 3 12 20
3 Almeria 8 6 0 2 13 5 8 18
4 Girona 8 4 2 2 14 8 6 14
5 Mallorca 8 4 2 2 8 3 5 14
6 Burgos 8 4 2 2 12 9 3 14
7 Sabadell 8 3 4 1 8 6 2 13
8 Sp Gijon 8 4 1 3 8 8 0 13
9 Granada 8 3 2 3 13 13 0 11
10 Oviedo 8 3 2 3 8 8 0 11
11 Las Palmas 8 3 2 3 12 13 -1 11
12 Tenerife 8 3 2 3 10 12 -2 11
13 Leganes 8 3 2 3 6 11 -5 11
14 Valladolid 8 2 3 3 8 11 -3 9
15 Cordoba 8 3 0 5 13 18 -5 9
16 Sociedad B 8 2 2 4 11 13 -2 8
17 Eldense 8 2 2 4 8 10 -2 8
18 Celta B 8 2 2 4 10 14 -4 8
19 Cadiz 8 1 4 3 11 10 1 7
20 Andorra 8 2 1 5 12 15 -3 7
21 Ceuta 8 1 2 5 7 18 -11 5
22 Albacete 8 0 1 7 5 15 -10 1

Recent Trends

Burgos L W W W D

  • Last Match: L vs Almeria (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Eldense (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Las Palmas (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Ceuta (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Oviedo (Goals: 0 - 0)

Granada W L L D L

  • Last Match: W vs Sociedad B (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Andorra (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Leganes (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Albacete (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Eibar (Goals: 0 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Burgos

Goals scored (avg, home) 2.25
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.25
Clean Sheets 2

Granada

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.60
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.80
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Burgos a 40% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 30% and Granada at 30%. This is a tight call, with Burgos only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 54% and sees both teams scoring in 56% of cases.

Match Analysis

Burgos arrive with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (LWWWD from most recent), scoring 7 and conceding 4 with 2 clean sheets. Granada arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (WLLDL from most recent), scoring 8 and conceding 12 with 0 clean sheets. In the table Burgos sit 6th with 14 points from 8 games and a goal difference of +3, while Granada are 9th with 11 points and a level goal difference. That puts Burgos 3 points clear of their opponent. Burgos average 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over their last five home games, while Granada average 1.6 scored and 1.8 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Burgos), attack (4.4 points toward Granada), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (3.6 points toward Burgos). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Burgos
Goals in last 5 matches
Granada
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 54% and Over 2.5 at 46%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Burgos matches produced 2.2 goals on average over their last 5, Granada matches 4.0. Both teams to score comes in at 56%, no goal for at least one side at 44%. In the model's own attribution, Burgos attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 4.3 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Burgos
Corners in last 5 matches
Granada
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.8 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 49%, which leaves 51% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Burgos
Shots in last 5 matches
Granada
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 26.5 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 26. The chance of 26 shots or fewer is 52%, which leaves 48% for 27 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Burgos wins by X goals. Negative = Granada wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Burgos vs Granada with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Burgos vs Granada
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.1 goals in favour of Burgos. The spread model gives 24% to a Burgos win by two goals or more and 42% to any Granada win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Burgos win (40%), Under 2.5 (54%), Goal (56%). Expected totals: 9.8 corners and 26.5 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel