Segunda División 2026-2027: Cadiz vs Girona Prediction - 19 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Cadiz

Home Team
29%
VS

Girona

Away Team
42%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 23.2
Expected Spread: -0.2

Why the Model Leans Girona

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Cadiz
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +8.8 Girona
Defense +6.3 Girona
Results & dominance +5.8 Girona
Attack +2.2 Girona

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 59% for Girona. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Cadiz defense +1.8 Over
Girona attack & chance creation +1.3 Under
Cadiz attack & chance creation +1.1 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Castellon 5 4 1 0 7 2 5 13
2 Eibar 5 4 0 1 10 3 7 12
3 Mallorca 5 3 1 1 7 2 5 10
4 Tenerife 5 3 1 1 7 3 4 10
5 Las Palmas 5 3 1 1 7 6 1 10
6 Almeria 5 3 0 2 8 4 4 9
7 Oviedo 5 2 2 1 4 1 3 8
8 Burgos 5 2 2 1 8 6 2 8
9 Sociedad B 5 2 2 1 8 6 2 8
10 Granada 5 2 2 1 6 5 1 8
11 Sabadell 5 2 2 1 4 4 0 8
12 Leganes 5 2 2 1 3 3 0 8
13 Girona 5 2 1 2 10 7 3 7
14 Celta B 5 2 1 2 7 8 -1 7
15 Sp Gijon 5 2 1 2 2 3 -1 7
16 Eldense 5 1 2 2 3 6 -3 5
17 Valladolid 5 1 1 3 2 7 -5 4
18 Andorra 5 1 0 4 8 10 -2 3
19 Cadiz 5 0 3 2 5 7 -2 3
20 Cordoba 5 1 0 4 7 12 -5 3
21 Albacete 5 0 1 4 3 8 -5 1
22 Celta 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23 Sociedad 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24 Ceuta 5 0 0 5 2 15 -13 0

Recent Trends

Cadiz L L D D D

  • Last Match: L vs Las Palmas (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Almeria (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Valladolid (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Eldense (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Celta B (Goals: 0 - 0)

Girona L W W L D

  • Last Match: L vs Castellon (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Sp Gijon (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Las Palmas (Goals: 5 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Cordoba (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Leganes (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Cadiz

Goals scored (avg, home) 0.33
Goals conceded (avg, home) 0.67
Clean Sheets 1

Girona

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.50
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.00
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Cadiz a 29% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 28% and Girona at 42%. This is a tight call, with Girona only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 53% and sees both teams scoring in 52% of cases.

Match Analysis

Cadiz arrive with 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLDDD from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 7 with 1 clean sheet. Girona arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LWWLD from most recent), scoring 10 and conceding 7 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Cadiz sit 19th with 3 points from 5 games and a goal difference of -2, while Girona are 13th with 7 points and a goal difference of +3. That puts Girona 4 points clear of their opponent. Cadiz average 0.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over their last five home games, while Girona average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Cadiz), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (8.8 points toward Girona), defense (6.3 points toward Girona). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Cadiz
Goals in last 5 matches
Girona
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 53% and Over 2.5 at 47%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Cadiz matches produced 2.4 goals on average over their last 5, Girona matches 3.4. Both teams to score comes in at 52%, no goal for at least one side at 48%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Cadiz defense pulls toward Over by 1.8 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Cadiz
Corners in last 5 matches
Girona
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.3 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 54%, which leaves 46% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Cadiz
Shots in last 5 matches
Girona
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 23.2 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 23. The chance of 23 shots or fewer is 54%, which leaves 46% for 24 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Cadiz wins by X goals. Negative = Girona wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Cadiz vs Girona with expected spread of -0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Cadiz vs Girona
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.2 goals in favour of Girona. The spread model gives 20% to a Cadiz win by two goals or more and 47% to any Girona win. A Girona win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Girona win (42%), Under 2.5 (53%), Goal (52%). Expected totals: 9.3 corners and 23.2 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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