Cadiz

Segunda División · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1388 · #24 Segunda División 0W-3D-0L · 3 pts In line Updated Aug 31, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #21 of 22 45.9 expected pts · currently 3 pts after 3 matches

League title 0.1%
Promotion 0.3%
Automatic promotion 0.2%
Promotion playoffs 1.4%
Relegation 58.3%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Segunda División simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Cadiz?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 37 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Cadiz's results were 3.3% harder to call than the Segunda División average. How this is measured.

MarketCadizLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 51.3% 50.1%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 51.3% 58.0%
Both teams to score 51.3% 56.0%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Segunda División #24 1385 1389 1388
2025-26 Segunda División #22 1518 1579 1342
2024-25 Segunda División #10 1459 1581 1506
2023-24 La Liga #15 1518 1518 1403
2022-23 La Liga #13 1471 1499 1461
2021-22 La Liga #10 1498 1500 1492
2020-21 La Liga #13 1467 1563 1431
2019-20 Segunda División #17 1556 1684 1492
2018-19 Segunda División #7 1524 1622 1548
2017-18 Segunda División #9 1529 1637 1512

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 31, 2026 at Santander L Cadiz 8.1% · draw 14.2% L ✓
May 24, 2026 vs Leganes L Cadiz 32.9% · draw 30.9% W ✗
May 15, 2026 at Castellon L Cadiz 6.5% · draw 12.0% D ✗
May 08, 2026 vs La Coruna L Cadiz 26.1% · draw 26.3% L ✓
May 02, 2026 at Cultural Leonesa L Cadiz 30.6% · draw 30.9% D ✗
Apr 27, 2026 vs Las Palmas L Cadiz 26.5% · draw 26.5% L ✓
Apr 19, 2026 at Sp Gijon L Cadiz 20.2% · draw 25.1% L ✓
Apr 12, 2026 vs Andorra L Cadiz 32.5% · draw 29.4% L ✓
Apr 04, 2026 vs Cordoba L Cadiz 30.5% · draw 27.7% L ✓
Mar 31, 2026 at Valladolid L Cadiz 18.9% · draw 25.9% L ✓

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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