Segunda División 2026-2027: Cadiz vs Leganes Prediction - 3 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Cadiz

Home Team
34%
VS

Leganes

Away Team
35%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 48%
No Goal: 52%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 25.2
Expected Spread: +0.1

Why the Model Leans Leganes

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Cadiz
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +4.8 Leganes
Results & dominance +3.7 Leganes
Defense +3.3 Leganes
Attack +2.0 Leganes

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Leganes. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Cadiz attack & chance creation +1.8 Under
Leganes attack & chance creation +1.5 Under
Cadiz defense +1.0 Over
Leganes defense +0.7 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 54% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Castellon 7 6 1 0 14 2 12 19
2 Eibar 7 6 0 1 15 6 9 18
3 Almeria 7 5 0 2 11 4 7 15
4 Burgos 7 4 2 1 11 7 4 14
5 Girona 7 4 1 2 14 8 6 13
6 Mallorca 7 4 1 2 8 3 5 13
7 Sabadell 7 3 3 1 8 6 2 12
8 Oviedo 7 3 2 2 7 4 3 11
9 Tenerife 7 3 2 2 8 9 -1 11
10 Leganes 7 3 2 2 6 7 -1 11
11 Las Palmas 7 3 1 3 10 11 -1 10
12 Sp Gijon 7 3 1 3 5 6 -1 10
13 Granada 7 2 2 3 10 11 -1 8
14 Sociedad B 7 2 2 3 9 10 -1 8
15 Celta B 7 2 2 3 8 11 -3 8
16 Valladolid 7 2 2 3 6 9 -3 8
17 Andorra 7 2 0 5 12 15 -3 6
18 Cordoba 7 2 0 5 10 16 -6 6
19 Eldense 7 1 2 4 4 9 -5 5
20 Cadiz 7 0 4 3 7 10 -3 4
21 Ceuta 7 1 1 5 6 17 -11 4
22 Albacete 7 0 1 6 4 12 -8 1

Recent Trends

Cadiz D L L L D

  • Last Match: D vs Tenerife (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Las Palmas (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Almeria (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Valladolid (Goals: 1 - 1)

Leganes L W L D W

  • Last Match: L vs Castellon (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Granada (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Tenerife (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Las Palmas (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Eldense (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Cadiz

Goals scored (avg, home) 0.50
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.00
Clean Sheets 0

Leganes

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.50
Goals conceded (avg, away) 0.75
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Cadiz a 34% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Leganes at 35%. This is a tight call, with Leganes only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 54% and sees both teams scoring in 48% of cases.

Match Analysis

Cadiz arrive with 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (DLLLD from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 8 with 0 clean sheets. Leganes arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LWLDW from most recent), scoring 4 and conceding 6 with 2 clean sheets. In the table Cadiz sit 20th with 4 points from 7 games and a goal difference of -3, while Leganes are 10th with 11 points and a goal difference of -1. That puts Leganes 7 points clear of their opponent. Cadiz average 0.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Leganes average 0.5 scored and 0.8 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Cadiz), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (4.8 points toward Leganes), results & dominance (3.7 points toward Leganes). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Cadiz
Goals in last 5 matches
Leganes
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 54% and Over 2.5 at 46%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Cadiz matches produced 2.6 goals on average over their last 5, Leganes matches 2.0. Both teams to score comes in at 48%, no goal for at least one side at 52%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Cadiz attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 1.8 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Cadiz
Corners in last 5 matches
Leganes
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.2 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 56%, which leaves 44% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Cadiz
Shots in last 5 matches
Leganes
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.2 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 53%, which leaves 46% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Cadiz wins by X goals. Negative = Leganes wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Cadiz vs Leganes with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Cadiz vs Leganes
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.1 goals in favour of Cadiz. The spread model gives 23% to a Cadiz win by two goals or more and 43% to any Leganes win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Leganes win (35%), Under 2.5 (54%), No Goal (52%). Expected totals: 9.2 corners and 25.2 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel